| 中国雨日数的气候特征及趋势变化 |
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| 引用本文： | 汪卫平,杨修群,张祖强,吴战平.中国雨日数的气候特征及趋势变化[J].气象科学,2017,37(3):317-328. |
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| 作者姓名： | 汪卫平 杨修群 张祖强 吴战平 |
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| 作者单位： | 贵州省气候中心, 贵阳 550002,南京大学 大气科学学院, 南京 210023,国家气候中心, 北京 100081,贵州省气候中心, 贵阳 550002 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）项目（2013CB430200）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（41330420，41621005）；黔气科合KF[2017]14号 |
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| 摘 要： | 使用国家气象信息中心整编的全国2 425个观测站1961年1月—2013年2月的52 a逐日降水观测资料,美国气象环境预报中心(NCEP)和美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)资料。通过计算气候场、雨日概率、倾向值、M-K突变检验等现代统计诊断方法,研究了中国各等级雨日数的年、季节的时空分布特征和不同等级雨日数的趋势变化特征以及相关的背景环流。得到以下结论:(1)中国年总雨日数高值区在四川东部、贵州、江南及云南西南部,以小雨日数占比最高;中雨、大雨日数高值区在江南东部和云南西南部;50 mm以上雨日数中心分别在华南沿海和闽—浙—赣交界,前者强后者弱;(2)年内总雨日概率分布表现为3类:平缓型、单峰型、双峰型,南方地区除云南外均为平缓型;西藏东部、川西、陕甘宁3省南部、青海东部为双峰型;全国其余地区为单峰型;(3)中国季风区小雨日数在1970s末—1980s初发生突变,呈趋势性显著减少,除东北外,四季均减少,以秋冬季云南、上海等地减少最显著,而干旱半干旱区小雨日数呈增加趋势;(4)西南地区东部的年中雨日数在2000年后显著减少,秋季减少最明显,而京、沪、粤3大城市群年中雨日数呈增加趋势;西南地区东部秋季、云南夏季大雨以上日数在2003年后显著减少,而夏冬两季长江中下游中雨以上等级的雨日数明显增加;(5)川东、贵州、江南中部的雨日高值区与青藏高原东部低层回流冷空气形成的静止锋或辐合带相联系。
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| 关 键 词： | 雨日数 气候特征 趋势变化 雨日概率 静止锋 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016/11/7 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017/1/4 0:00:00 |
The climatic characteristics and trends of rainy days over China |
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| WANG Weiping,YANG Xiuqun,ZHANG Zuqiang and WU Zhanping.The climatic characteristics and trends of rainy days over China[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2017,37(3):317-328. |
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| Authors: | WANG Weiping YANG Xiuqun ZHANG Zuqiang and WU Zhanping |
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| Institution: | Guizhou Climate Center, Guiyang 550002, China,School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China,National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China and Guizhou Climate Center, Guiyang 550002, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the daily observed rainfall dataset of 2 425 stations during 1961-2013 and the relevant NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the spatial and temporal distribution features, trend variation features and relevant background circulation of each grade rainy days in China are investigated with methods of calculating climatic field, rainy day probability, propensity score, M-K mutation test.Results show that:(1) the maximum value of total annual rainy days occurs in eastern Sichuan, Guizhou province, South China and southwestern Yunnan province, and the main proportion is light rainy days; the maximum values of moderate and heavy rain days are over southeastern China and southwestern Yunnan; the maximum value centers of more than 50 mm rainfall days are over coastal region of South China and the juncture among Zhejiang, Jiangxi and Fujian province. (2) There are three annual total rainy days probability distribution categories:gently, unimodal and bimodal type. Besides Yunnan province, all areas in South China are gently type; East Xizang, West Sichuan, southern areas of shaanxi, Gansu and Ningxia, East Qinghai are all bimodal type, and other areas in China are unimodal type. (3) Light rainy day number mutations over China monsoon region occurred in the end of 1970s to the early 1980s, which shows a significant reducing trend from then on. In Southeast China, it decreases in all four seasons, while in Yunnan and Shanghai it decreases most obviously in autumn and winter. The light rainy days increases significantly in arid and semi-arid region. (4) The total annual moderate rainy days significantly reduced over the eastern part of Southwest China around 2000, which is most obvious in autumn, while in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong, it presents increasing trend. The heavy rainy days decreased in eastern part of Southwest China in autumn and in Yunnan province in summer after 2003, while the moderate or above rainy days increased significantly over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer and winter. (5) The high value of rainy day number over East Sichuan, Guizhou province and the Southern Yangtze River regions was associated with the stationary front and the convergence of cold air and warm air over Tibet Plateau. |
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| Keywords: | Rainy days Climatic characteristics Trend variation Probability of rainy day Stationary front |
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