| 我国业务天气预报发展的若干问题思考 |
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| 引用本文： | 伍荣生,谈哲敏,王元.我国业务天气预报发展的若干问题思考[J].气象科学,2007,27(1):112-118. |
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| 作者姓名： | 伍荣生 谈哲敏 王元 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京大学大气科学系中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室,南京210093 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划);国家自然科学基金;高等学校博士学科点专项科研项目;江苏省自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文着重从我国业务天气预报的现状和国际业务化天气预报技术的发展趋势出发,探讨了业务天气预报发展目前存在问题和对于这些问题的若干思考。并强调了天气预报技术的发展必须和大气探测技术的进步和发展紧密结合,并强调了天气预报技术的发展应主观和客观预报相结合、数值和统计预报相结合。
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| 关 键 词： | 探测 天气 业务 预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-08-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-11-19 |
DISCUSSIONS ON THE SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT OF CHINESE OPERATION WEATHER FORECAST |
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| Wu Rongsheng,Tan Zhemin and Wang Yuan.DISCUSSIONS ON THE SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT OF CHINESE OPERATION WEATHER FORECAST[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2007,27(1):112-118. |
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| Authors: | Wu Rongsheng Tan Zhemin and Wang Yuan |
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| Institution: | Department of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093;Department of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093;Department of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093 |
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| Abstract: | Some assessments and problems in the scientific and technological development of Chinese operational weather forecast have been discussed.From the view point of comparison between international mainstream development and Chinese current operational state in weather forecasting techniques,some demerits and merits existing in forecasting services at national and provincial levels are argued in details.Based on such necessary argument and assessment,three crucial issues are emphasized,i.e.,the development of weather forecasting should be integrated with the advanced synoptical sounding techniques,and objective weather analysis should be coalescent with subjective analysis.Moreover,the numerical weather prediction is very necessarily combined with the development of statistical method,in order to deal with chaotic nature. |
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| Keywords: | Synoptical sounding Weather Operational weather service Forecasting |
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