| 一次过度预报的温带气旋的观测资料影响性研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 韩峰,储可宽,刘浩铄,张熠.一次过度预报的温带气旋的观测资料影响性研究[J].气象科学,2018,38(5):637-647. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 韩峰 储可宽 刘浩铄 张熠 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 南京大学 大气科学学院/中尺度灾害性天气教育部实验室, 南京 210093,南京大学 大气科学学院/中尺度灾害性天气教育部实验室, 南京 210093,南京大学 大气科学学院/中尺度灾害性天气教育部实验室, 南京 210093,南京大学 大气科学学院/中尺度灾害性天气教育部实验室, 南京 210093 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金面上项目（41275059，41675053）；江苏省自然科学基金面上项目（BK20161395） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 针对2015年2月12—16日发生在东亚的一次预报过度的温带气旋开展了资料同化及资料影响性观测等研究。此次温带气旋的发展与各个主要数值模式的预报相差甚大,并未出现预期中的爆发性增长。针对此次过程,采用WRF模式及其变分同化系统开展了模拟与同化试验,主要同化了NCEP全球地面和高空观测资料,修正了此次温带气旋过度预报的问题。经过同化后,减弱了系统的气旋性环流,同时南北温差的减弱也导致了环境场的斜压性的减弱,使得气旋爆发性增长延后,强度减弱,更符合实际观测。与此同时,还利用WRF伴随模式WRFPLUS和观测资料影响性模式WRFDA-FSO开展了观测资料影响性的研究,并发现三类资料SOUND、SYNOP、GEOAMV在减小预报误差中的作用最大。进一步的敏感性试验表明仅同化这3种资料可以取得更为理想的预报。
|
| 关 键 词： | 爆发性气旋 资料同化 观测资料影响性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/3/21 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017/11/1 0:00:00 |
Observation impact on an over-forecasted extratropical cyclone |
| |
| HAN Feng,CHU Kekuan,LIU Haoshuo and ZHANG Yi.Observation impact on an over-forecasted extratropical cyclone[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2018,38(5):637-647. |
| |
| Authors: | HAN Feng CHU Kekuan LIU Haoshuo and ZHANG Yi |
| |
| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather of Ministry of Education/School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China,Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather of Ministry of Education/School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China,Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather of Ministry of Education/School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China and Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather of Ministry of Education/School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China |
| |
| Abstract: | An over-forecasetd extratropical cyclone during 12-16 February 2015 in East Asia was studied by Date assimilation and Observation impact. The development of extratropical cyclone is different from some Numerical Weather Prediction Centers''simulations because of non-exist explosive development. By means of WRF and Date Assimilation model, 3DVAR experiment assimilated NCEP ADP Global Upper Air and Surface Weather Observations and reduced forecast error. With the decrease of cyclonic circulation and atmospheric north-south temperature difference which reduces baroclinity, the moment of intensification is delayed and intense is weaker than NWPC''s simulation. Meanwhile, 12-hours observation impact was evaluated by WRF adjoint model WRFPLUS and WRFDA-FSO. For each observation type, the total contribution of reducing forecast error was greatest for SOUND, SYNOP, GEOAMV. Sensitive experiment which assimilated three above observations provides more ideal prediction and improves simulation result. |
| |
| Keywords: | Explosive cyclone Date assimilation Observation impact |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气象科学》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象科学》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
