| 福建伏旱期旱涝环流特征及其预测探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 许金镜,温珍治,杨林,王毅仁.福建伏旱期旱涝环流特征及其预测探讨[J].气象科学,2004,24(2):233-239. |
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| 作者姓名： | 许金镜 温珍治 杨林 王毅仁 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 福建省气象台,福州,350001
2. 南安市气象局,南安,362300 |
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| 基金项目： | 福建省自然科学基金项目资助 (编号D0 2 10 0 19) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文取1960～2000年全省25个代表站7月降水资料和北半球500hPa高度场资料、以及500hPa面上的极涡、中纬度环流、青藏高原高度场(即高原地区等压面高度场)、副热带高压等74个环流指数为素材；首先标定伏旱期降水的异常指数和严重旱涝年例，其次分析严重旱涝年例的500hPa环流背景，最后揭示预测概念模型，得出秋冬季北半球副热带高压，欧亚经向环流和青藏高原高度场的变化是预测福建伏旱期降水的强信号因子。
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| 关 键 词： | 伏旱期旱涝 环流背景 预测分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2002/11/18 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年11月18 |
DISCUSSION ON FORECAST OF DROUGHT AND FLOOD CIRCUMFLUENCE CHARACTER IN HOT SEASONS OF FUJIAN |
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| Xu Jinjing,Wen Zhenzhi,Yang Lin and Wang Yiren.DISCUSSION ON FORECAST OF DROUGHT AND FLOOD CIRCUMFLUENCE CHARACTER IN HOT SEASONS OF FUJIAN[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2004,24(2):233-239. |
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| Authors: | Xu Jinjing Wen Zhenzhi Yang Lin and Wang Yiren |
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| Institution: | The Meteorological Observatory of Fujian Province, Fuzhou 350001
; The Meteorological Bureau of Nannan,Nannan 362300;The Meteorological Observatory of Fujian Province, Fuzhou 350001
; The Meteorological Bureau of Nannan,Nannan 362300;The Meteorological Observatory of Fujian Province, Fuzhou 350001
; The Meteorological Bureau of Nannan,Nannan 362300;The Meteorological Observatory of Fujian Province, Fuzhou 350001
; The Meteorological Bureau of Nannan,Nannan 362300 |
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| Abstract: | The precipitation data of 25 representative meteorological stations in Fujian,500hpa height in northern hemisphere,polar vortex,meso-latitude circumfluence,Tibetan plateau height ,subtropical high and so on circumfluence index during July from 1960 to 2000 were selected.Firstly,the anomalous index and years of precipitation in hot season were defined.Secondly,the 500 hPa circumfluence background of severity drought and flood years were analysed.Finally,the forecast concept model was exposed. The primary results are found:(1) The circumfluence characters in drought years are found: Polar vortex of northern hemisphere is feeble,Ural blocking high is evident,the path of cold air is partial to be east,subtropical high of West-Pacific is strong,meso-latitude height on East-Asia is low,the trough on meso-Pacific increases,the anomaly of 500 hPa at high,median,low latitude on East-Asia region is positive ,negative and positive,respectively.(2)The circumfluence characters in flood years are found:Polar vortex of northern hemisphere is strong,Ural blocking high is not evident,the path of cold air is partial to be west,subtropical high of West-Pacific is feeble,meso-latitude height on East-Asia is high,the trough on meso-Pacific decreases,the anomaly of 500 hPa at high,median,low latitude on East-Asia region is negative,positive and negative,respectively.(3)The subtropical high in northern hemisphere in autumn-winter,the longitude circumfluence on Europe-Asia region and Tibetan plateau height change are strong signal gene for forecast of precipitation in hot season of Fujian. |
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| Keywords: | Drought and flood in hot seasons Circumfluence background Forecast analysis |
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