| 500 hPa球函数谱异常用于我国东部汛期降水预测的尝试 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 周晓霞,王盘兴,周春华,李丽平.500 hPa球函数谱异常用于我国东部汛期降水预测的尝试[J].气象科学,2004,24(1):88-94. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 周晓霞 王盘兴 周春华 李丽平 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 南京气象学院大气科学系,南京,210044 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目 4 9975 0 2 5和 4 0 2 330 37资助 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 用北、南半球500hPa月平均位势高度场球函数系数资料代替格点资料，用区域降水指数表示华北、江淮、华南五区汛期(6～8月)降雨。通过引进复相关系数和构造复相关系数场模．分析了半球500hPa环流与我国东部汛雨异常的同时和时滞相关联系。在此基础上．选取5月份北半球、1月份南半球球函数系数与东部汛期降水作时滞的奇异值分解。由此得到的预测关系在1998～2001年汛期降水预报试验中取得了一定效果，从而对500hPa环流的球函数系数资料在区域月、季长期天气预报中的应用作了有益的尝试。
|
| 关 键 词： | 500hPa环流 我国汛期降水 球函数分析 时滞奇异值分解 预测尝试 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年10月10 |
AN ATTEMPT TO PREDICT EASTERN CHINA SUMMER RAINFALL USING ANOMALOUS 500 hPa SPHERICAL FUNCTIONS |
| |
| Zhou Xiaoxia,Wang Panxing,Zhou Chunhua,Li Liping.AN ATTEMPT TO PREDICT EASTERN CHINA SUMMER RAINFALL USING ANOMALOUS 500 hPa SPHERICAL FUNCTIONS[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2004,24(1):88-94. |
| |
| Authors: | Zhou Xiaoxia Wang Panxing Zhou Chunhua Li Liping |
| |
| Abstract: | Spherical function coefficients of 500 hPa monthly-mean height field of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere are used here instead of grid data. Sectorized precipitation index is representative of summer rainfall of Huabei, Jianghuai and Huanan areas. Through the introduction of complex correlation coefficients and the definition of the module of complex correlation field, this paper analyses synchronous and time-lagged correlation between 500 hPa Hemisphere circulation and summer rainfall anomaly in Eastern China, based on which singular value decomposition is made to Eastern Chinese summer rainfall and 500 hPa Southern Hemisphere spherical function coefficients of January as well as Northern Hemisphere spherical function coefficients of May. A forecasting relation is constructed from the time coefficients and works well in the 1998 to 2001 summer rainfall prediction test. These provide a good basis for the application of 500 hPa spherical function coefficients in area of short term climate prediction. |
| |
| Keywords: | 200 hPa circulation China summer rainfall Spherical function analysis Time lagged SVD Prediction test |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气象科学》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象科学》下载免费的PDF全文 |
