| 偏北大风的数值预报释用方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘鸿升,余功梅.偏北大风的数值预报释用方法研究[J].气象科学,2002,22(1):100-106. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘鸿升 余功梅 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 海军试验基地,大连,116023
2. 空军气象中心,北京,100843 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用欧洲中心中期数值预报结果，从不同侧面选取因子，建立了日最大平均风速的四种统计预报方程，在此基础上设计了几种集成方法对预报结果进行集成，结果表明，我们设计的最大值－阀值综合集成法取得了很好的效果，特别是2－3天的大风预报准确度较高。
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| 关 键 词： | 偏北大风 数值预报 集成预报 日最大平均风速 大风预报 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000年10月11 |
STUDY ON THE FORECASTING OF SOUTHWARD STRONG WIND BY THE APPLICATION OF NUMERICAL MODEL RESULTS |
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| Iiu Hongsheng.STUDY ON THE FORECASTING OF SOUTHWARD STRONG WIND BY THE APPLICATION OF NUMERICAL MODEL RESULTS[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2002,22(1):100-106. |
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| Authors: | Iiu Hongsheng |
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| Abstract: | By studying on the medium-range numerical model results of ECMWF,four kinds of statistical forecast equations for calculating the maximum average wind everyday have been established.On the basis of this,by selecting different factors several integrating methods were designed to forecast the southward strong wind .The experiment results show that the Maximum Value-Threshlod comprehensive method has a good performance in forecasting southward strong wind,especially in two or three days forecasting. |
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| Keywords: | Southward strong wind Application of numerical model results Integrating forecast |
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