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基于自动观测站的鲁中地区土壤水分变化规律及精细化预报模型的研究
引用本文:环海军,杨再强,刘岩,夏福华.基于自动观测站的鲁中地区土壤水分变化规律及精细化预报模型的研究[J].气象科学,2016,36(6):834-842.
作者姓名:环海军  杨再强  刘岩  夏福华
作者单位:淄博市气象局, 山东 淄博 255048;南京信息工程大学 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京 210044,南京信息工程大学 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京 210044,淄博市气象局, 山东 淄博 255048,淄博市气象局, 山东 淄博 255048
基金项目:山东省气象局青年科研基金项目(2015SDQN14)
摘    要:为了建立鲁中地区土壤水分精细化预报模型,利用2010—2013年农田土壤水分自动站逐日资料进行土壤水分年、月变化特征研究,并结合附近自动气象站资料,以土壤水分平衡方程、农田蒸散模型为基础,采用逐步回归和曲线估计等方法建立4—6月无降水条件下平原水浇田与山旱田土壤水分1 d、7 d降幅的经验预报模型。结果表明:鲁中地区0~100 cm土壤水分贮存量年变化趋势和0~50 cm基本一致,年最高出现在8月,最低出现在6月,年降幅最大出现在3—6月,易出现干旱。对预报模型进行回代和预报检验结果显示,回代平均相对误差为0.07%,7 d模型和1 d模型滚动预报第7天0~50 cm土壤水分贮存量,绝对误差分别为-0.15和-2.17 mm,平均相对误差分别为-0.07%和-1.56%,模型具有较强的理论基础和实用性,预报精度较高,为鲁中地区土壤墒情监测和精细化预报提供支持。

关 键 词:鲁中地区  土壤水分贮存量  土壤水分平衡方程  预报模型
收稿时间:2015/1/12 0:00:00
修稿时间:2015/2/12 0:00:00

Analysis on soil moisture variation and fine forecast model in the middle areas of Shandong province based on automatic observation station
HUAN Haijun,YANG Zaiqiang,LIU Yan and XIA Fuhua.Analysis on soil moisture variation and fine forecast model in the middle areas of Shandong province based on automatic observation station[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2016,36(6):834-842.
Authors:HUAN Haijun  YANG Zaiqiang  LIU Yan and XIA Fuhua
Institution:Zibo Meteorological Bureau, Shandong Zibo 255048, China;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China,Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China,Zibo Meteorological Bureau, Shandong Zibo 255048, China and Zibo Meteorological Bureau, Shandong Zibo 255048, China
Abstract:In order to establish fine soil water forecast model in middle area of Shandong province, the daily dataset of the farmland automatic soil moisture station were used to analyze the annual and monthly soil moisture variations from 2010 to 2013. Combined with the dataset of automatic meteorological stations data nearby, based on the soil water balance principle and field evapotranspiration model, the stepwise regression and curvilinear regression methods were used to establish the empirical forecast model of daily and seventh day''s soil moisture declining in condition of continuous nonprecipitation from April to June in irrigated plain and mountainous area. Results show that the annual variation trend of soil moisture storage from 0 to 100 cm depth was consistent with the depth from 0 to 50 cm in the middle area of Shandong province, whose maximal point appeared in August, the minimal point in June, and the largest monthly decreasing amplitude appeared in March to June, so drought was prone to happen in those months. The back substitution and forecast results of the models show that the average relative error of the back substitution was 0.07%, and the absolute errors and relative errors of the seventh day''s soil moisture storage by using the seven days'' model and one day''s model from 0 to 50 cm depth were -0.15 mm and -2.17 mm, -0.07% and -1.56%, respectively. The models are characterized by high accuracy, strong practicability and theoretical basis, which could provide support for soil moisture monitoring and fine forecast in the middle area of Shandong province.
Keywords:Middle areas of Shandong province  Soil moisture storage  Crop-soil water balance principle  Forecast model
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