| 基于小波分析的宿州地区暴雨时空分布特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐菲菲,孙良鑫,汪梦瑶,张振宇,吴洪颜.基于小波分析的宿州地区暴雨时空分布特征[J].气象科学,2018,38(4):559-564. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐菲菲 孙良鑫 汪梦瑶 张振宇 吴洪颜 |
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| 作者单位： | 宿州市气象局;江苏省气象台 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201406028）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（41371412）；安徽省气象局硕博士工作启动经费项目（RC201613） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用宿州地区5个气象观测站1981—2015年的逐日降水资料,将Morlet小波分析方法应用于宿州地区年暴雨发生频次的统计分析,提取其时间序列的振荡周期,考察在不同时段上的变化特征;运用Mann-Kendall (M-K)非参数检验,对宿州地区35 a来的暴雨日及暴雨量进行了时间序列的特征分析和突变检验。结果表明:宿州地区1981—2015年暴雨日具有南多北少的特点,集中发生期为6—8月;近35 a来宿州地区暴雨日和年总暴雨量年际波动虽然较大,但总体呈上升趋势;宿州暴雨发生频次存在多重时间周期尺度上的嵌套复杂结构,存在着5~12 a、3~7 a的短期周期变化规律,1998年以后生成的5 a左右的震荡周期及27 a左右的中期震荡周期;宿州暴雨在2002年发生显著突变,至2008年,增加趋势接近α=0. 05上显著性水平的临界线,2008年以后又缓慢减少。
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| 关 键 词： | 宿州地区 暴雨 时空分布 小波分析 M-K非参数检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/2/27 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017/2/27 0:00:00 |
Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of rainstorm in Suzhou based on wavelet analysis |
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| XU Feifei,SUN Liangxin,WANG Mengyao,ZHANG Zhenyu and WU Hongyan.Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of rainstorm in Suzhou based on wavelet analysis[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2018,38(4):559-564. |
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| Authors: | XU Feifei SUN Liangxin WANG Mengyao ZHANG Zhenyu and WU Hongyan |
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| Institution: | Suzhou Meteorological Bureau, Anhui Suzhou 234000, China,Suzhou Meteorological Bureau, Anhui Suzhou 234000, China,Suzhou Meteorological Bureau, Anhui Suzhou 234000, China,Suzhou Meteorological Bureau, Anhui Suzhou 234000, China and Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing 210008, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the daily precipitation data of 5 meteorological stations in Suzhou from 1981 to 2015, this paper analyzed the frequency of occurrence of rainstorm in Suzhou by Morlet wavelet analysis method, extracted the oscillation period of time series to investigate the change characteristics in different periods. Time series trend analysis and abrupt change test of rainstorm days and rainstorm amount in Suzhou in recent 35 years were conducted by the Mann-Kendall (M-K) nonparametric test. The results show that the rainstorm in the south is more frequent than that in the north of Suzhou from 1981 to 2015, and occurs mainly from June to August. Although the rainstorm days and rainstorm amount fluctuated obviously every year in recent 35 years in Suzhou, it showed a rising trend on the whole. The rainstorm frequency of Suzhou has a complex nesting structure on the multiple time scales, including 5 to 12 years and 3 to 7 years of short-term cycle variation, about 5 years oscillation cycle generated after 1998, and about 27 years of medium-term shock cycle. Suzhou rainstorm has remarkable abrupt changes in 2002, approaching to the upper horizontal borderline of 95% by 2008, but decreasing slowly after 2008. |
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| Keywords: | Suzhou Rainstorm Temporal and spatial distribution Wavelet analysis M-K nonparametric test |
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