| 淮河上游地区夏玉米生长降水关键期内旱涝致灾降水阈值研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李学文,高超,尹周祥,阮甜.淮河上游地区夏玉米生长降水关键期内旱涝致灾降水阈值研究[J].气象科学,2018,38(4):477-488. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李学文 高超 尹周祥 阮甜 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院;安徽师范大学江淮流域气候变化与水资源研究中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目（41571018） |
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| 摘 要： | 基于淮河上游地区11个气象站点1959—2015年降水资料,利用夏玉米气候产量与生育期降水序列进行相关性分析,确定降水影响夏玉米生长的关键时段,定义为夏玉米生长降水关键期,并采用21种分布函数对降水关键期内降水序列进行拟合,选取K-S和A-D方法进行拟合优度检验,建立最优概率分布模型,再基于降水概率分位数法定量化设计夏玉米各级旱涝的降水阈值R,并验证指标的合理性。结果表明:(1)淮河上游地区夏玉米抽雄-成熟生育时段及前一旬降水量对夏玉米产量影响显著;(2)各站点夏玉米生长降水关键期内降水序列的最优概率分布模型差异明显;(3) 11个站点夏玉米各级旱涝灾害的降水阈值地区差异较大,利用泰森多边形法确定整个淮河上游地区夏玉米生长降水关键期内旱涝致灾降水阈值分别是:重旱R73 mm,旱73 mm≤R138 mm,正常138 mm≤R337 mm,涝337 mm≤R475 mm,重涝R≥475 mm。
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| 关 键 词： | 夏玉米 旱涝致灾降水阈值 降水概率分位数法 最优概率分布模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016/12/26 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017/7/27 0:00:00 |
Study on precipitation thresholds of drought and flood disasters in the key period of precipitation for summer maize in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River |
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| LI Xuewen,GAO Chao,YIN Zhouxiang and RUAN Tian.Study on precipitation thresholds of drought and flood disasters in the key period of precipitation for summer maize in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2018,38(4):477-488. |
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| Authors: | LI Xuewen GAO Chao YIN Zhouxiang and RUAN Tian |
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| Institution: | College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Anhui Wuhu 241000, China;Climate Change and Water Resource Center of Jiang-Huai Basin, Anhui Normal University, Anhui Wuhu 241000, China,College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Anhui Wuhu 241000, China;Climate Change and Water Resource Center of Jiang-Huai Basin, Anhui Normal University, Anhui Wuhu 241000, China,College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Anhui Wuhu 241000, China;Climate Change and Water Resource Center of Jiang-Huai Basin, Anhui Normal University, Anhui Wuhu 241000, China and College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Anhui Wuhu 241000, China;Climate Change and Water Resource Center of Jiang-Huai Basin, Anhui Normal University, Anhui Wuhu 241000, China |
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| Abstract: | |
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| Keywords: | Summer maize Precipitation threshold of drought and flood disasters Method of precipitation probability Optimal probability distribution model |
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