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| 副热带高压及其影响因子的非平稳性检验与协整分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 董兆俊,张韧,余丹丹,洪梅,肖建民.副热带高压及其影响因子的非平稳性检验与协整分析[J].气象科学,2012,32(4):418-422. |
| 作者姓名： | 董兆俊 张韧 余丹丹 洪梅 肖建民 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 解放军61741部队,北京100094;解放军理工大学气象学院,南京211101 2. 解放军理工大学气象学院,南京,211101 3. 解放军61741部队,北京,100094 4. 解放军91199部队气象台,浙江舟山,316000 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(41075045) |
| 摘 要： | 为分析理解副高活动与其影响因子的关系,引入计量经济学非平稳性检验的思想和方法,对副高脊线、江淮梅雨活动、青藏高压活动及印度季风活动等特征指数序列进行了单位根检验与协整分析。单位根检验的结果表明,副高脊线指数及其3个影响因子均无单位根,具有非平稳性,且都为一阶单整;协整分析结果表明,副高脊线指数与该三个影响因子之间存在协整关系。分析结果有助于深化对气象要素时间序列非平稳性的认识,进而为构建副高特征指数和影响因子之间的内在关联模型提供依据。 |
| 关 键 词： | 副热带高亚 单位根检验 非平稳性 协整 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011/8/10 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2011/11/2 0:00:00 |
Nonstationary verification and co-integration analysis of the west Pacific subtropical high and the influence factors |
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| DONG Zhaojun,ZHANG Ren,YU Dandan,HONG Mei and XIAO Jianmin.Nonstationary verification and co-integration analysis of the west Pacific subtropical high and the influence factors[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2012,32(4):418-422. | |
| Authors: | DONG Zhaojun ZHANG Ren YU Dandan HONG Mei and XIAO Jianmin |
| Institution: | Army of PLA,Beijing,100094, China;Institute of Meteorology,PLA University of Science and Technological,Nanjing 211101,China;Institute of Meteorology,PLA University of Science and Technological,Nanjing 211101,China;Army of PLA,Beijing,100094, China;Institute of Meteorology,PLA University of Science and Technological,Nanjing 211101,China;Meteorological Observatory of No.91199 Army of PLA, Zhejiang Zhoushan 316000, China |
| Abstract: | In order to analyze the complexity of the activity of west Pacific subtropical high,this paper introduced the conception and method of nonstationary verification. The unit root verification and co-integration analysis were applied to analyze the ridge line of the west Pacific subtropical high and the influence factors. The results of the unit root verification indicate that the ridge line of the west Pacific subtropical high and the influence factors have no unit root.They have the nonstationary characteristics and the time series are first order integration.The results of co-integration analysis indicate that the ridge line of the west Pacific subtropical high is co-integration between the influence factors.The research results help construct the model between the west Pacific subtropical high and the influence factors. |
| Keywords: | Subtropical high Unit root verification Nonstationary Co-integration |
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