| 暴雨灾害风险及其对农业影响的评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 王莹,张晓月,张琪,李琳琳,黄岩.暴雨灾害风险及其对农业影响的评估[J].气象科学,2019,39(1):137-142. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王莹 张晓月 张琪 李琳琳 黄岩 |
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| 作者单位： | 辽宁省气象科学研究所, 沈阳 110166,辽宁省气象科学研究所, 沈阳 110166,辽宁省气象科学研究所, 沈阳 110166,辽宁省气象科学研究所, 沈阳 110166,辽宁省气象科学研究所, 沈阳 110166 |
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| 基金项目： | 农业气象灾害精细化预报及风险评估研究（2014210003） |
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| 摘 要： | 综合考虑降雨区域类型、发生强度和持续时间,确定了暴雨灾害致灾因子的综合强度分级标准;将地形高程、高程标准差、河网密度等环境脆弱性要素结合暴雨灾害致灾因子,建立暴雨灾害风险评估模型,并进行分级评估;应用GIS将农业易损性指标叠加到暴雨灾害风险区划中,得到不同等级风险下农业受影响的程度。以"7·21"暴雨为例,进行模型的应用及检验分析,结果表明:降雨量最大的葫芦岛大部、丹东宽甸县暴雨灾害风险等级为极高;致灾因子危险等级相同时,辽宁中部平原地区较辽西、辽东丘陵地区暴雨灾害风险等级高;农业易损性较高的沈阳大部、鞍山北部、丹东局部、锦州大部、铁岭部分、葫芦岛大部地区农业受灾较重。评估结果与事实灾情较一致。
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雨 致灾因子 灾害风险 农业影响 定量评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/1/17 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/1/19 0:00:00 |
Assessment on storm disaster risk and its impact on agriculture |
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| WANG Ying,ZHANG Xiaoyue,ZHANG Qi,LI Linlin and HUANG Yan.Assessment on storm disaster risk and its impact on agriculture[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2019,39(1):137-142. |
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| Authors: | WANG Ying ZHANG Xiaoyue ZHANG Qi LI Linlin and HUANG Yan |
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| Institution: | Liaoning Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Shenyang 110166, China,Liaoning Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Shenyang 110166, China,Liaoning Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Shenyang 110166, China,Liaoning Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Shenyang 110166, China and Liaoning Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Shenyang 110166, China |
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| Abstract: | According to the rainfall coverage area, intensity and duration, this paper determines the comprehensive strength grading standard for storm hazard factors. This paper integrates environmental vulnerability factors such as terrain elevation, elevation standard deviation, and river network density with storm disaster hazard factors, to establish a rainstorm disaster risk assessment model, and conduct a graded assessment. GIS is applied to superimpose the agricultural vulnerability factor into the storm disaster risk zoning, to capitulate the extent to which agriculture is affected under different risk levels. Taking the "7·21" heavy rain as an example, the application and test analysis of the model are carried out. The result shows that the storm disaster risk grade is extremely high in most areas of Huludao and Kuandian county in Dandong which have the maximum rainfall. Under the same grades of hazard factor, the risk level is higher in the plain region located in the central part of Liaoning province than in the hill region located in the west and east Liaoning. Agriculture in most areas of Shenyang, northern Anshan, local areas of Dandong, most areas of Jinzhou, some areas of Tieling, and most areas of Huludao is seriously affected. All of the above areas have high agricultural vulnerability. The assessment results are consistent with the actual situation. |
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| Keywords: | rainstorm disaster-inducing factors disaster risk agricultural influence quantitative assessment |
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