| 四川盆地大暴雨降水的日变化模拟偏差成因分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 薛羽君,白爱娟,赵学华,李典.四川盆地大暴雨降水的日变化模拟偏差成因分析[J].气象科学,2014,34(3):310-316. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 薛羽君 白爱娟 赵学华 李典 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 成都信息工程学院, 成都 610225;成都信息工程学院, 成都 610225;海南省气象局, 海口 570203;沈阳市气象局, 沈阳 110168 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201206042） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 利用WRF模式模拟了2011年6月16-17日四川盆地的一次大暴雨过程,首先根据24 h累积降水的位置、强度,选取了位于不同地形的3个强降水中心作为代表站,分析其降水日变化的模拟效果。结果表明:模式基本模拟出了位于川东北盆地边缘旺苍地区的降水峰值;而对位于盆中的荣昌站和位于川西高原的越西地区的模拟效果不理想。为了揭示影响逐时降水的因子,对3个代表站不同时刻的模拟效果进行对比分析,发现强降水的模拟效应与对流层中水汽、动力以及热力条件的模拟效果紧密相关。模式对水汽、位势高度、流场、垂直速度及大气层结状况这些物理量在各个时刻的不同模拟效果导致了逐时降水模拟的偏差,模式中盆地周围山地地形高度的偏差同样影响降水的模拟效果。
|
| 关 键 词： | WRF模式 大暴雨日变化 偏差分析 四川盆地 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012/10/24 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2012/12/28 0:00:00 |
Cause analysis on simulation deviation of precipitation diurnal variation in a heavy rainstorm in Sichuan Basin |
| |
| XUE Yujun,BAI Aijuan,ZHAO Xuehua and LI Dian.Cause analysis on simulation deviation of precipitation diurnal variation in a heavy rainstorm in Sichuan Basin[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2014,34(3):310-316. |
| |
| Authors: | XUE Yujun BAI Aijuan ZHAO Xuehua and LI Dian |
| |
| Institution: | Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China;Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China;Hainan Meteorological Bureau, Haikou 570203, China;Shenyang Meteorological Bureau, Shenyang 110168, China |
| |
| Abstract: | With the Weather Research Forecast(WRF) model, numerical simulation is carried out on a heavy rain in Sichuan basin during June 16-17,2011. Three representative stations located at different terrains were first selected, based on area and intensity of 24 h accumulated precipitation, then the simulation result of diurnal variation in precipitation was analyzed. The results show that the simulated hourly precipitation peak in Wangcang (the northeastern verge of the basin) is very close to the observation, but in Rongchang(the middle of the basin) and Yuexi(in the western Sichuan plateau), the hourly precipitation and 24 h accumulated precipitation are both quite different from the observations. Comparative analysis on the simulation result of three representative stations at different time points shows that heavy rainfall simulation is closely related to water vapor, dynamic and heating conditions in the simulation. The deviation of hourly precipitation was caused by the different simulation effects of the model on the water vapor, geopotential height,stream,vertical speed and atmosphere stratification at every time point, as well as the deviation of terrain altitude around the basin in the model. |
| |
| Keywords: | WRF model Diurnal variation of heavy rainfall Deviation analysis Sichuan basin |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气象科学》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象科学》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
