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WRF模式对福建沿海风电场风速预测的效果分析
引用本文:杨光焰,吴息,周海.WRF模式对福建沿海风电场风速预测的效果分析[J].气象科学,2014,34(5):530-535.
作者姓名:杨光焰  吴息  周海
作者单位:1. 延庆县气象局,北京延庆,102100
2. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点试验室,南京,210044
3. 国网电力科学研究院清洁能源发电研究所,南京,210003
基金项目:江苏省科技支撑计划项目(E2010200);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206026);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)
摘    要:在WRF模式中选取不同的边界层、近地面层以及陆面过程参数化方案,设计了4种不同物理过程参数化方案,组合模拟福建沿海某测风塔站2010年1月1—11日和7月1—11日的逐时风速,将数值模拟结果和同期测风塔观测数据进行对比,以寻求最佳参数化方案。经分析比较,采用MYJ边界层方案,Monin-Obukhov近地面层方案以及Noah陆面过程方案的方案2模拟效果最好。使用该方案对2010年1月和7月的风速进行模拟,按不同风速级别分别对数值模拟结果进行对比分析,结果表明:方案2对6~15m/s风速模拟的平均相对误差在20%左右,能够满足风电预测的精度需求;而对0~6m/s风速模拟的误差相对较大,这可能是由于模式地形分辨率不够精细以及风塔所处海陆交界处的特殊位置,使低风速容易受地面扰动以及海陆气流影响所致。

关 键 词:风电场  风速预测  WRF模式  物理过程参数化
收稿时间:2013/1/29 0:00:00
修稿时间:2013/3/21 0:00:00

Effect analysis of WRF on wind speed prediction at the coast wind power station of Fujian province
YANG Guangyan,WU Xi and ZHOU Hai.Effect analysis of WRF on wind speed prediction at the coast wind power station of Fujian province[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2014,34(5):530-535.
Authors:YANG Guangyan  WU Xi and ZHOU Hai
Institution:Yanqing Meteorological Bureau, Beijing Yanqing 102100, China;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Research Institute of Clean Energy Generation, State Grid Electric Power Research Institute, Nanjing 210003, China
Abstract:In this paper, in order to obtain the most reasonable parameterization scheme, four different physical parameterization schemes were designed with different boundary, surface layer and land layer in WRF numerical to simulate the hourly wind speed during January 1-11 July 1-11, 2010, and then the simulation was compared with the observation. The results show that the scheme 2 using MYJ boundary layer scheme, Monin-Obukhov surface layer scheme and Noah land-surface scheme provided the best simulation. According to different wind speed levels, the comparison of wind speeds simulated by scheme 2 with the observation during January and July, 2010 shows that, in the case of wind speed 6-15 m/s, the average relative error of simulation amounts to less than 20%, meeting the precision demand of wind power prediction, while for wind speed at 0-6 m/s, the error goes up because the lack of accurate topographic resolution of model and the special location of the wind tower made the low wind speed easily affected by the land disturbance and the land-sea airflow.
Keywords:Wind power station  Wind speed prediction  WRF model  Physical parameterization
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