| 辽宁省未来7d土壤墒情逐日滚动预报方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 焦敏,李荣平,张晓月,李辑,张琪.辽宁省未来7d土壤墒情逐日滚动预报方法研究[J].气象科学,2017,37(5):683-690. |
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| 作者姓名： | 焦敏 李荣平 张晓月 李辑 张琪 |
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| 作者单位： | 辽宁省气象科学研究所, 沈阳 110166,辽宁省气象科学研究所, 沈阳 110166,辽宁省气象科学研究所, 沈阳 110166,辽宁省气象科学研究所, 沈阳 110166,辽宁省气象科学研究所, 沈阳 110166 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目（41330531）；中国气象局省级气象科研所科技创新发展项目；辽宁省气象局科研课题 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于气象台定量预报数据和自动土壤水分监测数据等实时和历史资料,采用土壤水分平衡原理,研究了辽宁省未来7 d土壤墒情逐日滚动预报方法。结果表明:预报模型稳定性好,能够较好地模拟出辽宁省未来7 d土壤墒情的定量演变趋势,首次实现了土壤墒情的定量化预报、精细化(县级)预报及逐日滚动预报。该方法成功实现的关键之处在于采用回归分析方法实现了气象台提供的预报要素和模型所用预报要素之间的转换。
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| 关 键 词： | 土壤水分平衡原理 土壤墒情 逐日滚动预报 定量预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016/7/28 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016/8/25 0:00:00 |
Study on day-by-day rolling forecast method of soil moisture in the next seven days in Liaoning province |
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| JIAO Min,LI Rongping,ZHANG Xiaoyue,LI Ji and ZHANG Qi.Study on day-by-day rolling forecast method of soil moisture in the next seven days in Liaoning province[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2017,37(5):683-690. |
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| Authors: | JIAO Min LI Rongping ZHANG Xiaoyue LI Ji and ZHANG Qi |
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| Institution: | Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110166, China,Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110166, China,Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110166, China,Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110166, China and Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110166, China |
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| Abstract: | By using the real-time and historical datasets of the quantitative forecast data from National Meteorological Center of CMA and automatic soil moisture monitoring data, the daily rolling forecast of soil moisture in the next seven days in Liaoning province was researched with the theory of soil water balance principle. Results demonstrate that the forecast model is stable, and can better simulate the quantitative evolution trend of soil moisture. The quantitative forecast, fine forecast, daily rolling forecast on soil moisture are realized firstly by this model. The key to the successful implementation of this method is the realization of the conversion between the meteorological forecast elements supplied by observation and the elements used in the model based on the regression analysis method. |
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| Keywords: | Soil water balance principle Soil moisture Day-by-day rolling forecast Quantitative forecast |
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