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江西省暖季重大短时强降水敏感性参数分析及概念模型
引用本文:付超,谌芸,单九生,朱克云.江西省暖季重大短时强降水敏感性参数分析及概念模型[J].气象科学,2021,41(1):39-49.
作者姓名:付超  谌芸  单九生  朱克云
作者单位:福建省气象台, 福州 350001;福建省灾害天气重点实验室, 福州 350001;大气科学学院 成都信息工程大学, 成都 610225;国家气象中心, 北京 100081;南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海), 广东 珠海 519082;大气科学学院 成都信息工程大学, 成都 610225;江西省气象台, 南昌 330096
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(41975001);国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFC1502501)
摘    要:利用江西省2010-2016年5-9月1 597个观测站逐小时降水资料,ERA Interim, Daily逐日4次0.125°×0.125°再分析资料以及南昌和赣州探空资料,筛选出84例重大短时强降水过程,并建立了5种重大短时强降水概念模型:冷锋型、西南急流型、副高边缘型、暖切型和台风型,各型分别占比29%、40%、11%、12%和8%。每例过程平均维持时间分别是4.9 h、5.6 h、4.4 h、5.5 h、6.7 h;平均降水强度为31 mm·h-1、27 mm·h-1、45mm·h-1、30mm·h-1、36mm·h-1。冷锋型、西南急流型和暖切型基本出现在5—6月,副高边缘型主要出现在7月,台风型在7—9月且多集中在8月。对于短时强降水的高频区,冷锋型、西南急流型和暖切型主要集中在鄱阳湖平原处,副高边缘型主要分布在武夷山西侧,台风型主要集中在江西东北部。5种类型对应的关键环境参数特征为:冷锋型、副高边缘型及台风型的CAPE平均在1 200 J·kg-1,西南急流型和暖切型集中在500~1 200 J·kg-1;CIN基本都在20~60 J·kg-1;台风型的K指数偏高,超过38℃,其他四类达到32℃即可;S指数平均值都低于-1.1℃。T700-T500基本有75%的过程在13℃之上,T850-T500有75%过程达到23℃;冷锋型与西南急流型的850 hPa假相当位温超过340 K即可,其他三型需达到345 K;暖云层厚度基本在4 000 m以上。地面露点西南急流型和暖切型最低为21℃,其次是冷锋型,阈值为22℃,台风型阈值为24℃;大多数PW都在50 mm以上,平均为60 mm左右。

关 键 词:重大短时强降水  敏感性参数  概念模型
收稿时间:2019/7/25 0:00:00

Analysis of conceptual models and sensitivity parameters of major flash heavy rain in Jiangxi warm season
FU Chao,CHEN Yun,SHAN Jiusheng,ZHU Keyun.Analysis of conceptual models and sensitivity parameters of major flash heavy rain in Jiangxi warm season[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2021,41(1):39-49.
Authors:FU Chao  CHEN Yun  SHAN Jiusheng  ZHU Keyun
Institution:Fujian Meteorological Observatory, Fuzhou 350001, China;Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Fuzhou 350001, China;School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China;National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai), Guangdong Zhuhai 519082, China;School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China;Jiangxi Meteorological Observatory, Nanchang 330096, China
Abstract:By using the hourly precipitation data of 1597 stations in Jiangxi warm season from 2010 to 2016,ERA Interim,four times a day 0.125°×0.125°reanalysis data and the sounding data of Nanchang and Ganzhou,84 cases of major flash heavy rain were selected,and five conceptual models of major flash heavy rain were established.They are cold front type,southwest jet type,the subtropical high type,warm shear type and typhoon type,and each type accounts for 29%,40%,11%,12%and 8%.The average process maintenance time is 4.9 h,5.6 h,4.4 h,5.5 h and 6.7 h;the average precipitation intensity is 31 mm·h-1,27 mm·h-1,45 mm·h-1,30 mm·h-1and 36 mm·h-1.The cold front type,southwest jet type and warm shear type appear in May and June,the subtropical high type mainly occur in July,and the typhoon type occurs in July,August and September,but mainly concentrated in August.As for the high frequency area of flash heavy rain,cold front type,southwest jet type and warm shear type are mainly concentrated in the Poyang Lake Plain,the subtropical high type is mainly concentrated in the west side of Wuyi Mountain,and the typhoon type is mainly concentrated in the northeastern Jiangxi.The characteristics of environmental parameters are:the average CAPE of cold front type,subtropical high type and typhoon type is 1200 J·kg-1,and the southwest jet type and warm shear type are among 500 to 1200 J·kg-1.CIN is basically among 20 to 60 J·kg-1.The K index of the typhoon type is higher than 38℃,and the other four categories reach to 32℃.The S index is basically less than-1.1℃.About 75%T 700-T 500 is above 13℃,and 75%T 850-T 500 is above 23℃.In regard to 850 hPaθse,the cold front type and southwest jet type greater than 340 K can be obtained,but the other three types need to be higher than 345 K.The height of warm clouds should be higher above 4000 m.The lowest of the surface T d southwest jet type and the warm shear type is 21℃,the second is the cold front type,the threshold is 22℃,and the typhoon type is 24℃.Most of the PW is above 50 mm,and the average is about 60 mm.
Keywords:major flash heavy rain  sensitivity parameters  conceptual models
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