| 基于临界条件的中国航空气象危险要素区域分布与风险区划 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄斌,朱伟军,红梅,葛珊珊.基于临界条件的中国航空气象危险要素区域分布与风险区划[J].气象科学,2016,36(4):466-473. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄斌 朱伟军 红梅 葛珊珊 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 南京 210044,南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 南京 210044,解放军理工大学 气象海洋学院, 军事海洋环境实验室, 南京 211101,解放军理工大学 气象海洋学院, 军事海洋环境实验室, 南京 211101 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目（41075070，41276008，41375002） |
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| 摘 要： | 根据航空飞行安全的气象保障规范和临界条件,探讨了我国区域内影响飞机起降的气象要素的区域特征;在气象要素影响分析的基础上,建立飞机起降安全的气象要素评价指标;采用层次分析法(AHP)确定各评价指标的权重,利用模糊综合评价方法构建了飞机起降气象安全风险的评价标准和评价体系,运用区间梯形隶属度函数来计算评估单元各指标针对各风险等级的隶属度,最后根据最大隶属度原则作出风险评估与区划。分析表明,我国北方地区航空安全气象环境较南方地区好,南方出现航空飞行不利影响的恶劣气象条件的频率显著高于北方;我国航空安全气象风险由北至南逐渐递增,尤以东部沿海地区、福建和江西东北部地区、贵州东部及湖南地区的风险等级最高。
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| 关 键 词： | 航空安全 气象要素 影响因子 评价指标 风险评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015/1/12 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015/2/12 0:00:00 |
Regional distribution and risk zoning of risk factors of Chinese aeronautical meteorology under the critical condition |
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| HUANG Bin,ZHU Weijun,HONG Mei and GE Shanshan.Regional distribution and risk zoning of risk factors of Chinese aeronautical meteorology under the critical condition[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2016,36(4):466-473. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Bin ZHU Weijun HONG Mei and GE Shanshan |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China,Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China,College of Meteorology and Oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211101, China and College of Meteorology and Oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211101, China |
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| Abstract: | According to the mode and critical condition of aviation meteorological safety support, the regional features of the meteorological factors affecting the taking off and landing phases of aircraft over China region were discussed. Based on the analysis on the meteorological influencing factors, aviation meteorological risk assessment index during taking off and landing phases was established. The Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) was used to determine the weights of risk assessment index. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation helped construct evaluation standards and evaluation system of aviation safety. Furthermore, it is available to calculate the membership degree for each risk level about every evaluation unit based on trapezoidal membership functions. Finally, the risk assessment and regionalization based on the maximum membership principle were made. Results show that the weather conditions of taking off and landing phases in most parts of northern China were better than that in the south, and the frequency of adverse weather conditions making a practical implication in the South China was significantly higher than that in the North. Final evaluation showed the safety risks increase gradually from north to south. Eastern coastal areas, the Northeast Fujian and Jiangxi provinces,the Hunan province and the eastern region of Guizhou province were at the highest risk level. |
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| Keywords: | Aviation safety Meteorological elements Influencing factor Evaluation index Risk assessment |
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