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| 长江中下游地区暴雨值预报试验 | |
| 引用本文： | 郑维忠,倪允琪,等.长江中下游地区暴雨值预报试验[J].气象科学,2001,21(1):19-27. |
| 作者姓名： | 郑维忠 倪允琪 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南京大学大气科学系, 2. 南京大学大气科学系，南京210093 3. 中国气象科学研究院, |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究项目!（G1998040908）资助，博士荃全!（98028402）项目资助 |
| 摘 要： | 本文利用NCAR／PSU联合研制的中尺度天气数值模式MM5，对长江中下游地区在1996年6月下旬至7月中旬发生的暴雨过程，以国家气象中心业务运行的合球谱模式T63的分析场作为初值和侧边界条件，进行了一系列的数值预报试验，结果表明，该模式较好地预报了实况相近的降雨区的位置，但对暴雨的中心落点和强度，其预报结果与实测有一定程度的偏差，如何模式提前12小时开始积分，则可在一定程度上克服模式中凝结降水的施转加强问题，使预报的降水强度等有明显的改善。 |
| 关 键 词： | 长江中下游 暴雨 数值预报试验 降水强度 过程分析 |
| 修稿时间： | 1999年9月8日 |
NUMERICAL PREDICTION EXPERIMENTS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER OF CHANGJIANG RIVER VALLEY |
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| Zheng Weizhong,Yu Zhihao.NUMERICAL PREDICTION EXPERIMENTS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER OF CHANGJIANG RIVER VALLEY[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2001,21(1):19-27. | |
| Authors: | Zheng Weizhong Yu Zhihao |
| Abstract: | In this paper a series of experiments of the heavy rain processes occurring in the period from the third dekad in June to the second dekad in July of 1996 are made by using the NCAR/PSU mesoscale numerical weather model MM5. The analysis data of the global spectral model T63 at National Meteorological Center in China are used as initial and lateral boundary conditions necessary to drive the model runs. The results show that the model can predict the location of rainfall area, which is much close to the observation. However, there are some departures for location and density of heavy rain. If the model begins 12 hours earli- er,the spin-up problem of condensation rainfall in the model would been got over and pre- dicted rainfall density would become more reasonable. |
| Keywords: | Middle and lower of Changjiang River Vellay Heavy rain numerical pre- diction experiments |
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