| 西南地区极端降水变化趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 罗玉,范广洲,周定文,华维,李金建.西南地区极端降水变化趋势[J].气象科学,2015,35(5):581-586. |
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| 作者姓名： | 罗玉 范广洲 周定文 华维 李金建 |
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| 作者单位： | 成都信息工程学院大气科学学院高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室, 成都 610225,成都信息工程学院大气科学学院高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室, 成都 610225;南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京 210044,成都信息工程学院大气科学学院高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室, 成都 610225,成都信息工程学院大气科学学院高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室, 成都 610225,四川省农业气象中心, 成都 610072 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(41275079;41405069);国家科技支撑计划项目(2009BAC51B03);国家青年科学基金资助项目(41305077) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用西南地区90个气象台站1970-2010年逐日降水量资料,依据世界气象组织(WMO)定义的连续5d最大降水量、总降水量、强降水比等6种极端降水指数,采用F检验、11a滑动平均等统计方法,研究了西南地区极端强降水变化趋势的时空变化特征。在时间上,西南地区近41年来冬、春、夏季连续5d最大降水量缓慢波动上升,秋季连续5d最大降水量呈下降趋势;强降水、降水强度及强降水比呈上升趋势,但总降水量和最长持续无降水日数呈减少趋势;另外,各极端降水指数还存在明显的年际、年代际变化。在空间上,西南地区极端降水变化趋势具有显著的地域差异,呈东西或西北东南向梯度变化特征。其中冬季连续5d最大降水量、降水强度、强降水比及最长持续无降水日数,在西南大部分地区呈增加趋势。秋季连续5d最大降水量与总降水量在西南大部分地区呈减少趋势。而春、夏季连续5d最大降水量和强降水的增减区域大致相当。
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| 关 键 词： | 降水 极端降水指数 变化趋势 滑动平均法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014/5/16 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014/9/30 0:00:00 |
Extreme precipitation trend of Southwest China in recent 41 years |
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| LUO Yu,FAN Guangzhou,ZHOU Dingwen,HUA Wei and LI Jinjian.Extreme precipitation trend of Southwest China in recent 41 years[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2015,35(5):581-586. |
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| Authors: | LUO Yu FAN Guangzhou ZHOU Dingwen HUA Wei and LI Jinjian |
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| Institution: | Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China,Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China,Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China,Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China and Sichuan Agricultural Meteorological Center, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the daily precipitation data from 90 meteorological stations in Southwest China during 1970-2010, six extreme precipitation indices defined by the World Meteorological Organization such as RX5d,ATP, PPER, et al were used to analyze the temporal and spatial distributions of variation trend of extreme strong precipitation in Southwest China with methods like F test, 11-year moving average. Results indicated that in time scale the trend of RX5d(December-February;March-May;June-August) in Southwest China increased slowly, but decreased in September-November. R95p,SDII and PPER showed increasing trend, but ATP and CDD showed decreasing trend.Moreover, each extreme precipitation indice presented obvious interannual and interdecadal variations. In spatial scale, the extreme precipitation trend in Southwest China presents obvious geographical difference of gradient change from east to west or northwest to southeast. There existed significantly increasing trend of RX5d(December-February),SDII,PPER and CDD in most of Southwest China, but presented decreasing trend of ATP and RX5d(September-November) in most of Southwest China. The increasing/decreasing areas of RX5d(March-August)and ATP are appreximately equivalent. |
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| Keywords: | Precipitation Extreme precipitation index Variation trend Moving average method |
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