| 气候系统性态行为复杂性的探索 |
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| 引用本文： | 栗珂.气候系统性态行为复杂性的探索[J].气象科学,2004,24(1):95-103. |
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| 作者姓名： | 栗珂 |
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| 作者单位： | 陕西省气象科学研究所,西安,710015 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象科学技术研究课题项目 ( 96 90 8 0 5 0 3) |
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| 摘 要： | 用滑动t-检验方法(Moving t-tcst technique)对中国东部部分地区年降水量序列进行阶段分析,从各阶段气候性态频率分布特征得到启示．对气候系统性态行为的复杂性进行探索。提出气候系统性态行为的确定性与随机性份额比接近Fibonacci数(黄金分割比)的假设。用信息论的方法对气候变量的不确定性做了定量计算和分析，讨论了气候预测的局限性．提出气候预测(以年降水量为例)准确率的理论上限在中国北方可能为75％左右：在中国南方可能为80％左右。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候系统 确定性 随机性 黄金分割 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年10月17 |
THE EXPLORATIONS ON THE COMPLEXITY OF THE BEHAVIORS OF THE PROPERTIES AND STATES OF CLIMATE SYSTEM |
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| Li Ke.THE EXPLORATIONS ON THE COMPLEXITY OF THE BEHAVIORS OF THE PROPERTIES AND STATES OF CLIMATE SYSTEM[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2004,24(1):95-103. |
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| Authors: | Li Ke |
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| Abstract: | By using moving t-test technique, we do the analysis about the phases of the annual precipitation series of the eastern region of China, and enlightened by the frequency distribution character of the properties and states of every phases of climate,we explore the complexity of the behaviors of the properties and states of climate system. The assumption that the ratio of the certainty to the stochasticity of the behaviors of the properties and states of climate system is similar to the Fibonacci numbers (the golden ratio) is brought out. By using information theory, we quantitatively calculate and analyze the uncertainty of climate variables, discuss the limitations of climate prediction,and give out that the upper theory limit of the accuracy of climate prediction(the annual precipitation as the example)will be 75 % over northern China, and it will be 80 % over southern of China. |
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| Keywords: | Climate system Certainty Stochasticity Golden ratio |
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