| 逐步消空法在上海雷电潜势预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨仲江,唐晓峰.逐步消空法在上海雷电潜势预报中的应用[J].气象科学,2009,29(6):810-814. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨仲江 唐晓峰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,南京,210044;南京信息工程大学大气物理学院,南京,210044
2. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,南京,210044;南京信息工程大学电子与信息工程学院,南京,210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 2008年公益性行业科研专项 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用上海地区1999--2007年的探空资料、地面观测资料和历史天气图资料,从雷暴发生的形势场入手,分析上海地区雷暴主要类型.选取合理、适当的对流参数对于短时局地强雷雨天气的潜势预测、强度判别是有指示意义的.利用天气型、K指数、沙氏指数以及对流有效位能作为预报因子,采用逐步消空法找出雷暴识别指标集合,变小概率事件为条件概率下的大概率事件,进而提高雷电潜势预报准确率.
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| 关 键 词： | 逐步消空法 高空槽 雷电潜势预报 强对流参数 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008/10/7 0:00:00 |
The application of step-wise decreasing FAR method to thunderstorm potential trend forecast |
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| Yang Zhongjiang,Tang Xiaofeng.The application of step-wise decreasing FAR method to thunderstorm potential trend forecast[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2009,29(6):810-814. |
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| Authors: | Yang Zhongjiang Tang Xiaofeng |
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| Abstract: | The sounding data, ground observation data and weather chart information are used to analyze the main types of thunderstorms in Shanghai, started from the situation field of thunderstorms. A detail method of recognizing thunderstorm was introduced by step-wise decreasing FAR. The synoptic pattern, K index, SI index and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) were used as the factors to produce the indicator set of thunderstorm recognition ,which were selected to be reasonable for the potential trend forecast of strong thunderstorms in the short-term weather. It can be seen that a method to improve the forecast accuracy of rare events is to turn the rare events from very little probability into large probability by conditional probability |
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| Keywords: | Stepwise decreasing FAR method High-altitude trough Lightning potential forecast Severe convective parameters |
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