| 2009年夏季西太平洋台风路径和强度的多模式集成预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 周文友,智协飞.2009年夏季西太平洋台风路径和强度的多模式集成预报[J].气象科学,2012,32(5):492-499. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周文友 智协飞 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,南京,210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200906009);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(POPD) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于TIGGE资料中的中国气象局、欧洲中期天气预报中心、日本气象厅和英国气象局等四个中心的2009年5月1日-8月31日台风预报资料,利用多模式集合平均、消除偏差集合平均和加权消除偏差集合平均等方法,对2009年8月1-31日预报期的西太平洋的台风路径和强度(中心气压)进行24～ 72 h预报时效的多模式集成预报,并对0907号台风“天鹅”和0908号台风“莫拉克”进行个例分析.结果表明:各中心对于不同时效的预报,预报技巧有明显差异.消除偏差集合平均与加权消除偏差集合平均显著地减小了预报误差,预报效果优于最好的单个中心预报和多模式集合平均.对于24 ～ 72 h预报,加权消除偏差集合平均方法始终表现出最好的预报性能.
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| 关 键 词： | TIGGE 台风路径 中心气压:多模式集成 |
| 收稿时间： | 3/6/2012 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2012/5/17 0:00:00 |
Multimodel ensemble forecasts of the TC tracks and intensity over the western Pacific during the summer of 2009 |
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| ZHOU Wenyou and ZHI Xiefei.Multimodel ensemble forecasts of the TC tracks and intensity over the western Pacific during the summer of 2009[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2012,32(5):492-499. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Wenyou and ZHI Xiefei |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the ensemble forecasts of China Meteorological Administration, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and UK Met Office in the TIGGE(THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) datasets during the period from 1 May until 31 August 2009, 24-72 h multimodel ensemble forecasts of the typhoon track and intensity(central pressure)for the forecast period from 1 to 31 August 2009 have been conducted by using the weighted bias-removed ensemble mean (WEM), the multimodel ensemble mean (EMN), and the bias-removed ensemble mean (BREM). Typhoon "Goni"(No.0907)and "Marokot" (No.0908) are chosen for case study. The results show that forecast skills of these four models of different operational forecast centers are quite different for 24-72 h forecast. The WEM and BREM reduce the forecast errors considerably. Both methods show an improvement of the forecast skill over the best single model forecast and EMN. The WEM shows the best forecast skills in terms of the 24-72 h forecasts of the typhoon track and intensity over the western Pacific. |
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| Keywords: | TIGGE Track of typhoon Central pressure Multimodel ensemble |
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