| 热带气旋影响下浙江省强降水过程延伸期预报研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 马浩,李正泉,雷媛,肖晶晶.热带气旋影响下浙江省强降水过程延伸期预报研究[J].气象科学,2016,36(3):374-381. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马浩 李正泉 雷媛 肖晶晶 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江省气候中心, 杭州 310017,浙江省气候中心, 杭州 310017,浙江省气候中心, 杭州 310017,浙江省气候中心, 杭州 310017 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目（90815028）;浙江省自然科学基金资助项目（LQ14D050001）;浙江省气象科技计划资助项目（2012QN04）;浙江省气候中心科技开发项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用2000—2011年NCEP/NCAR水平风场逐日再分析资料以及浙江省逐日降水量资料,基于低频天气图工具,识别出3种与浙江省台风强降水过程相对应的典型低频大气环流型。通过合成分析,划分了与C型环流场和C+SN型环流场相适配的天气关键区。进而结合历史个例,研究了台风强降水期间关键区内低频系统的活动特征,初步建立了热带气旋影响下浙江省强降水过程预报模型,并提出依据模型开展延伸期过程预报的基本思路。对2012年的回报结果表明,模型表现出较好的性能,并针对强降水过程延伸期预报中需要解决的问题,提出了若干思考与建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 强降水 热带气旋 延伸期天气预报 低频天气图 合成分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 6/6/2014 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2014/10/3 0:00:00 |
Preliminary study on extended-range forecast for intensive precipitation processes over Zhejiang province induced by tropical cyclone: Model construction and examination |
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| MA Hao,LI Zhengquan,LEI Yuan and XIAO Jingjing.Preliminary study on extended-range forecast for intensive precipitation processes over Zhejiang province induced by tropical cyclone: Model construction and examination[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2016,36(3):374-381. |
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| Authors: | MA Hao LI Zhengquan LEI Yuan and XIAO Jingjing |
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| Institution: | Zhejiang Climate Center, Hangzhou 310017, China,Zhejiang Climate Center, Hangzhou 310017, China,Zhejiang Climate Center, Hangzhou 310017, China and Zhejiang Climate Center, Hangzhou 310017, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the daily NCEP/NCAR horizontal wind reanalysis datasets during 2000-2011 and synchronous daily precipitation data over Zhejiang province, the low-frequency synoptic chart was used to indentify three kinds of typical low-frequency atmospheric circulation pattern corresponding to intensive precipitation processes over Zhejiang province induced by tropical cyclone. Through composite analysis, the synoptic key regions corresponding to the "C-type" and "C+SN-type" circulation pattern are built. Furthermore, combined with historic cases study, the characteristics of low-frequency system activities in key regions during heavy rainfall processes are investigated, and a preliminary forecast model for intensive precipitation process over Zhejiang province induced by typhoon is constructed, moreover, a fundamental method conducting extended-range forecast of such strong rainfall processes is proposed. The performance of forecast model in this paper generally satisfies the hindcast of important typhoon-induced intensive precipitation processes in 2012, but the problems in operational extended-range forecast remain open. Some thoughts and suggestions are raised finally. |
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| Keywords: | Intensive precipitation Tropical cyclone Extended-range weather forecast Low-frequency synoptic chart Composite analysis |
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