| 基于气候适宜度的夏玉米发育期模拟模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 王展,刘荣花,薛明,李树岩.基于气候适宜度的夏玉米发育期模拟模型[J].气象科学,2015,35(1):77-82. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王展 刘荣花 薛明 李树岩 |
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| 作者单位： | 泰州市气象局, 江苏泰州 225300,中国气象局 河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室, 郑州 450003;河南省气象科学研究所, 郑州 450003,湖南省通道县气象局, 湖南通道 418500,中国气象局 河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室, 郑州 450003;河南省气象科学研究所, 郑州 450003 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200906021) |
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| 摘 要： | 结合前人气候适宜度的研究成果,以作物生理生态发育过程为基础,构建了夏玉米发育期预报模型。模型中分别建立了夏玉米温度、降水、日照时数适宜度函数,并结合河南省19个农业气象试验站的夏玉米发育期资料,运用通径分析法确定各个生育期温度、降水和日照的影响权重系数,计算出综合适宜度,用来预测夏玉米生育期。结果表明,模型能够较好地预测各个发育期(出苗、七叶、拔节、抽雄、乳熟和成熟)。建模资料的模拟值与观测值比较的均方根误差分别为1.5、3.1、3.4、2.9、4.0、4.5 d。运用独立资料对模型所作预测值的均方根误差在1.0~4.6 d之间。
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| 关 键 词： | 夏玉米 适宜度 生育期 预报模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013/4/23 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2013/5/25 0:00:00 |
Simulation model of summer maize phenology based on climatic suitability |
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| WANG Zhan,LIU Ronghu,XUE Ming and LI Shuyan.Simulation model of summer maize phenology based on climatic suitability[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2015,35(1):77-82. |
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| Authors: | WANG Zhan LIU Ronghu XUE Ming and LI Shuyan |
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| Institution: | Taizhou Meteorological Bureau, Jiangsu Taizhou 225300, China,CMA·Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique, Zhengzhou 450003, China;Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou 450003, China,Tongdao Meteorological Bureau, Hunan Tongdao 418500, China and CMA·Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique, Zhengzhou 450003, China;Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou 450003, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the crop eco-physiological development process and foundings of previous study on the climatic suitability, a simulation model of summer maize phenology was found. Firstly, the suitability functions such as temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration were established respectively. Then, by combining the above suitability function with summer maize data from 19 agrometeorological sites in Henan province, the affecting weight coefficients for temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration at different development stages were determined with path analysis. Finally, the combined suitability was calculated to predict the summer maize growth. Results showed that the model could predict various development stages (emergence, seven-leaf, jointing, tasseling, milk stage and maturation) quite well. The root mean square errors between the simulated and observed values of the building data were 1.5, 3.1, 3.4, 2.9, 4.0 and 4.5 days respectively. When the independent data was used to test the model, the root mean square errors ranged from 1.0-4.6 days. |
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| Keywords: | Summer maize Suitability Development stages Simulation model |
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