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基于GIS潍坊市暴雨洪涝灾害损失评估方法研究
引用本文:邱新法,汪朋,金有杰,李树军.基于GIS潍坊市暴雨洪涝灾害损失评估方法研究[J].气象科学,2015,35(2):189-194.
作者姓名:邱新法  汪朋  金有杰  李树军
作者单位:南京信息工程大学 遥感学院, 南京 210044,南京信息工程大学 遥感学院, 南京 210044,水利部 南京水利水文自动化研究所, 南京 210012,潍坊市气象局, 山东 潍坊, 261011
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(41175077;41330529);黔科合重大专项字([2011]6003);江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(CXZZ12_0507)。
摘    要:利用潍坊市1984—2007年暴雨洪涝灾情数据,基于GIS技术结合模糊综合评价方法确定了灾害综合评价指数,根据灾损率指标与灾害综合评价指数得到潍坊市农业经济损失率评估模型。模型表明灾害综合评价指数与农业经济损失率具有较好的线性相关关系,相关系数达0.842。并对潍坊市一次暴雨洪涝灾害进行评估,验证该模型精度。与实际灾情数据对比,相对误差最小值为15.37%,最大值为21.29%,模拟结果与历史灾情数据基本一致。

关 键 词:暴雨洪涝  模糊综合评价方法  GIS  评价指数  农业损失评估
收稿时间:2014/2/28 0:00:00
修稿时间:3/9/2014 12:00:00 AM

GIS-based loss assessment of flood disaster in Weifang
QIU Xinf,WANG Peng,JIN Youjie and LI Shujun.GIS-based loss assessment of flood disaster in Weifang[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2015,35(2):189-194.
Authors:QIU Xinf  WANG Peng  JIN Youjie and LI Shujun
Institution:Collge of Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China,Collge of Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China,Nanjing Automation Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydrology, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210012, China and Weifang Meteorological Bureau, Shandong Weifang 261011, China
Abstract:Based on the combination of GIS skill with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the flood data during 1984-2007 of Weifang city, Shandong province were used to determine the comprehensive disaster evaluation index. Moreover, the agricultural economy loss rate assessment model in Weifang was obtained by disaster loss rate index and the comprehensive disaster evaluation index determined above. The model demonstrates that the disaster loss rate has a good correlation with the evaluation index, with coefficient R reaching 0.842. Furthermore, the disaster loss statistics for error was calculated and analyzed by taking a heavy rain flood process as an example. The result showed that the minimal error is 15.37%, while the maximal one is 21.29%. The simulation result is almost the same as the historical data.
Keywords:Storms and floods  Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method  GIS  Evaluation index  Agricultural loss assessment
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