| SWC-WARMS在重庆地区的降水预报性能分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈良吕,杜钦.SWC-WARMS在重庆地区的降水预报性能分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2016,36(3):1-6. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈良吕 杜钦 |
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| 作者单位： | 重庆市气象科学研究所, 重庆 401147 |
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| 基金项目： | 重庆市气象局业务技术攻关团队项目(YWGGTD201622) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用2016年5~7月SWC-WARMS和CQMFS逐日20时起报的24h累计降水预报资料及24h累计降水观测资料,对两家模式在重庆地区的24~48h和48~72h的24h累计降水预报结果进行客观检验评分和对比分析,并针对2016年5~7月重庆地区的8次区域性强降水天气过程,进行了SWC-WARMS的24~48h强降水落区和强度的主观检验,结果表明:对于24~48h累计降水,CQMFS的TS评分除暴雨和大暴雨量级外均优于SWC-WARMS,且相对于SWC-WARMS而言,空报较少,漏报较多;对于48~72h累计降水,各个量级降水的TS评分、空报率和漏报率的表现一致,SWC-WARMS的各项评分均明显优于CQMFS;对于重庆地区2016年5~7月的8次强降水天气过程,除个别个例预报较差外,SWC-WARMS对强降水落区和强度的预报均具有一定的指示意义,能为预报员提供有用的参考,但降水强度总体偏强,大暴雨量级的降水空报现象较为明显。
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| 关 键 词： | SWC-WARMS模式 重庆地区 强降水 降水检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-08-09 |
Analysis on the Precipitation Forecast Performance of SWC-WARMS Model in Chongqing |
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| Institution: | Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Science, Chongqing 401147, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the 24h accumulated precipitation forecast data started at 8pm of the SWC-WARMS model and the CQMFS model and observation data from May to July in 2016,the performance of 24h accumulated precipitation forecast of both model are verified and compared,and the 24 ~ 48h heavy precipitation area and intensity forecast of the SWC-WARMS model of the eight heavy precipitation weather processes in Chongqing are verified. Result show that: for the 24 ~ 48h accumulated precipitation,the TS scores and PO scores of the CQMFS model are higher than that of the SWC-WARMS model,and the NH scores of the CQMFS model are lower than that of the SWC-WARMS model. For the 48 ~ 72h accumulated precipitation,the forecast performance of the SWC-WARMS model is much better than that of the CQMFS model. Taken as a whole,for the eight regional heavy precipitation weather processes in Chongqing,the heavy precipitation area and intensity forecast of the SWCWARMS model is good enough to benefit the weather forecaster,but the precipitation intensity is stronger overall and the vacancy rate of cloudburst is absolutely high. |
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