| 基于SPI指数的若尔盖及其临近地区降水变化特征分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭斌,王珊,邓梦雨.基于SPI指数的若尔盖及其临近地区降水变化特征分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2016,36(3):53-56. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭斌 王珊 邓梦雨 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 四川省阿坝州气象信息中心, 马尔康 624000; |
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| 基金项目： | 四川省阿坝州气象局2014年应用开发类课题项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用标准化降水指数(SPI)作为研究降水变化特征的指标,根据若尔盖及其临近地区8个气象站41a的气象资料,计算分析了该区域年、月不同时间尺度的SPI值及其变化特征。结果表明:近41a以来若尔盖及其临近地区降水有持续减少的现象,而且1990年前后降水变化的特点是不一致的。1990年之前,降水为正位相,年际变化明显;1990年之后,降水为负位相,年际变化减弱。若尔盖湿地每个月SPI指数都有明显的年际变化,线形趋势有增加也有减弱,但都没有通过90%的显著性检验。其中,6个月(1月、3月、4月、5月、7月和8月)趋势平稳,3个月(2月、10月和11月)有上升趋势,3个月(6月、9月和12月)有下降趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 降水变化 SPI指数 若尔盖及其临近地区 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-07-19 |
Analysis on Characteristics of Precipitation Change in Zoige and Its Surrounding Areas Based on SPI |
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| Institution: | 1. Meteorological Information Center of Aba Prefecture in Sichuan Province, Ma'erkang County 624000, China;2. Meteorological Observatory of Aba Prefecture in Sichuan Province, Ma'erkang County 624000, China;3. Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, CMA, Chengdu 610072, China;4. Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | Using standardized precipitation index(SPI) as the indicator with which the characteristics of precipitation change was analyzed and based on 41 a meteorological data from 8 meteorological Observatories in Zoige and its surrounding areas,SPI value and the characteristics of its change during different time scales of year and month in these areas were calculated and analyzed. The result shows that,in recent 41 a,there was a steady decrease in precipitation in Zoige and its surrounding areas and the characteristics of precipitation change before and after 1990 were different. Before 1990,the precipitation was in a positive phase with clear interannual variation. After 1990,the precipitation was in a negative phase with weakening interannual variation. In Zoige wetland there was a clear interannual variation in monthly SPI and both ascending and descending of the linear trend,yet no trend has passed the 90% significance test. There was a steady trend for the 6 months of January,March,April,May,July,and August,an ascending trend for the 3 months of February,October,and November,and a descending trend for another 3 months of June,September,and December. |
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