| 基于三大全球集合预报系统对内蒙古降水预报能力评估 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 安莉娟,赵艳丽,陈海英,代海燕.基于三大全球集合预报系统对内蒙古降水预报能力评估[J].高原山地气象研究,2019,39(2):37-42. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 安莉娟 赵艳丽 陈海英 代海燕 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 内蒙古气候中心, 呼和浩特 010051; |
| |
| 基金项目： | 内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目(2014BS0403) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 利用ECMWF、NCEP和CMC中心的1~3天7种降水集合预报产品,同时结合内蒙古119个气象站同期降水观测资料,对降水预报效果基于晴雨、降水等级划分(包括小雨、中雨、大雨以及暴雨)确定性TS评分以及空间分布特点进行了归纳总结,评估了三大全球集合预报系统在内蒙古地区的降水预报能力,为进一步开发模式预报及应用提供技术支撑。研究结果表明,ECMWF集合预报产品对内蒙古降水预报能力明显优于NEPC和CMC中心的产品。ECMWF集合预报产品24h时效下的晴雨及小雨、中雨、大雨以及暴雨预报都具有良好的预报能力,但是随着预报时效的延长至48h、72h,ECMWF集合预报产品预报能力明显降低,预报能力与NCEP和CMC中心的产品接近。24h的ECMWF集合预报产品在呼伦贝尔市、兴安盟、锡林郭勒盟、巴彦淖尔市西部、阿拉善盟地区预报效果明显较好,三大集合预报系统对内蒙古东部地区的预报能力总体偏高。
|
| 关 键 词： | 内蒙古 集合预报 ECMWF NCEP CMC |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-02-22 |
Inner Mongolia Precipitation Forecast Capability Evaluation of Three Global Ensemble Forecasting Systems |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Inner Mongolia Climate Centre, Hohhot 010051, China;2. Meteorological Bureau of Liangcheng County, Liangcheng 012300, China;3. Inner Mongolia Ecology and Agricultural Meteorology Centre, Hohhot 010051, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the 1~3 days 7 different ensemble prediction products of ECMWF,NCEP and CMC from May to September 2014 and the rainfall data from 119 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia during the same period,the precipitation forecast effect in Inner Mongolia was summarized.Ts score of rain and the deterministic Precipitation grade division and the spatial distribution characteristics of the precipitation were analyzed.The further development of Inner Mongolia model forecast and application provide technical support.The results show that the ECMWF model has a good forecasting ability for rain and light rain,moderate rain,heavy rain and rainstorm forecast at 24 hours in Inner Mongolia,and the prediction of NCEP and CMC is relatively poor.However,with the extension of forecasting time,the accuracy rate of ECMWF model forecast products show a decreasing trend and ensemble products decreased significantly at 48h and 72h.NCEP and CMC model forecast products are relatively stable.Monthly forecast ability is different.Spatial distribution is not uniform,and in Hulun Buir City,Xingan Meng,Xilinguole Meng,west of Bayannaoer City,Alashan ECMWF ensemble products have better prediction effect.Forecast ability of the three sets of ensemble prediction systems is generally high in Eastern Inner Mongolia. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《高原山地气象研究》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《高原山地气象研究》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
