| 多模式热动力耦合诊断系统与暴雨预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 缪强,黄德刚,徐虹,李强,代婷婷,张成宏,牟鸿鹄.多模式热动力耦合诊断系统与暴雨预报[J].高原山地气象研究,2009,29(4):10-17. |
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| 作者姓名： | 缪强 黄德刚 徐虹 李强 代婷婷 张成宏 牟鸿鹄 |
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| 作者单位： | 自贡市气象台, 自贡 643000 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用包含热动力耦合强迫的新型散度演化方程,研发了该方程的诊断计算方案和相应的软件系统,以多个数值预报模式产品为资料源,计算得到关于强降水激发、维持的热动力耦合诊断场,形成了一个多时效的诊断场序列,它包含了正压非平衡强迫和热动力耦合强迫对散度演化的作用,反映了暴雨激发和持续的数值特征,为探索暴雨激发维持机理和寻求暴雨预报指标提供了数据支持。多模式诊断场的综合分析是集合预报方法的一种实践,有利于提高预报准确率。我们对2009年的两次暴雨个例进行了诊断分析,结果表明:T213、T639模式的诊断场能够较为准确的预报出暴雨的开始和结束,有明显的预报指示意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雨预报 热动力耦合强迫 散度演化方程 诊断分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009-10-08 |
A Multi-mode Diagnostic System with Coupled Dynamic and Thermodynamic and Its Application in Rainstorm Forecast |
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| MIAO Qiang,HUANG Degang,XU Hong,LI Qiang,DAI Tingting,ZHANG Chenghong,MU Honghu.A Multi-mode Diagnostic System with Coupled Dynamic and Thermodynamic and Its Application in Rainstorm Forecast[J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research,2009,29(4):10-17. |
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| Authors: | MIAO Qiang HUANG Degang XU Hong LI Qiang DAI Tingting ZHANG Chenghong MU Honghu |
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| Institution: | Zi Gong Meteorological observatory, 643000 |
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| Abstract: | In this study, a new equation of divergence containing coupling forces between dynamic and thermodynamic is used to research and develop a diagnosis calculation scheme and a corresponding software system.The system adopts multiple products of numerical prediction models for calculating coupling fields between dynamic and thermodynamic about occurrence and maintenance of rainstorm and forming a multi-time effect diagnosis field.It contains barotropic non-equilibrium forcing and the coupling forcing of dynamic and thermodynamic, reflects the numerical characteristics of the excitation and maintenance of rainstorm, it also offers data support for exploring the mechanisms of excitation and maintenance of rainstorm and seeking forecaster indicators.The comprehensive analysis of multi-mode diagnostic fields is a practice of ensemble prediction which can improve the accuracy of prediction.Two cases of rainstorm in 2009 have been analyzed and the results show that the diagnostic fields of model products of T213 and T639 can accurately predict the beginning and end of rainstorm and have obvious index for rainstorm prediction. |
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