| 基于物理量场异常度的四川暴雨集合预报释用分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王佳津,曹萍萍,龙柯吉,等.基于物理量场异常度的四川暴雨集合预报释用分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2019,39(3):27-36. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王佳津 曹萍萍 龙柯吉 等 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 四川省气象台, 成都 610072; |
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| 基金项目： | 高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室(2017-青年-04)高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室(2018-重点-06) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据四川区域暴雨的定义,筛选2012~2016年的区域暴雨过程,选取850hPa的比湿(q)、850hPa经向风(v)2个因子,并应用NCEP资料计算30年的气候平均值和气候标准差,引入集合预报资料,计算四川暴雨个例各要素的标准化异常度和异常度概率。得到以下结论:(1)850hPa的比湿(q)、850hPa经向风(v)两个因子的48h集合最大预报异常度对四川盆东型暴雨更为适用,实况50mm以上降水落区一般都发生在850hPa比湿(经向风)异常度大值区,而对盆西型暴雨适用性不好;(2)在四川盆东型暴雨中,60%暴雨个例的实况暴雨中心,850hPa上比湿超出气候平均1个标准差的概率达到80%以上,超出1.5个标准差的概率到达50%以上。
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| 关 键 词： | 四川 暴雨 异常度 集合预报 释用分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-06-10 |
Interpretation and Analysis of Heavy Rain Event in Sichuan by Ensemble Prediction Based on Standardized Anomaly Forecasting |
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| Institution: | 1. Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, CMA/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China;2. Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the definition of regional heavy rain in Sichuan,the regional heavy rain in Sichuan from 2012-2016 have been screened.In this paper,the specific humidity (q) and meridional wind (v) of 850hPa are selected,and a method known as Ensemble Anomaly Forecasting,which combines ensemble forecasts with climatology,is applied by using the data of NCEP reanalysis and ensemble prediction of EC model.The results show that the standardized anomaly (SA) of the specific humidity (q) and the southerly wind (v) at 850hPa are more applicable to the regional heavy rain in the eastern basin,and the precipitation area above 50mm generally occurs in the area with the maximum value of standardized anomaly of specific humidity (q) and meridional wind (v) at 850hPa.In the regional heavy rain of eastern basin,60% of the heavy rains in the rainstorm center,the probability of a standard deviation of 850hPa over the climatological average reached 80%,and the probability of exceeding 1.5 standard deviations reached more than 50%. |
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