| 基于SPEI干旱指数的凉山州干旱特征分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 马献菊,蔡元刚,刘皓,等.基于SPEI干旱指数的凉山州干旱特征分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2019,39(3):53-59. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马献菊 蔡元刚 刘皓 等 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 四川省凉山州气象局, 西昌 615000; |
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| 基金项目： | 凉山州科知局重点科技项目(17YYJS0102)高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室项目(2018-重点-05-01) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文采用凉山州17个国家气象站1971~2017年的气象资料,利用基于Penman-Monteith模型的标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI,分析月、季、年不同时间尺度下凉山州SPEI干旱指数的时空分布状况,并以西昌气象站为代表进行了SPEI干旱指数的突变性M-K检验。结果表明:(1)标准化降水蒸散指数能较好地反映凉山州干旱发生程度;(2)凉山州干旱的年代际变化明显,20世纪70年代、80年代和21世纪10年代总体偏旱,20世纪90年代和21世纪00年代则相对较为湿润;(3)凉山州干旱发生频率空间分布不均,中部干旱发生频率高于北部和南部地区;(4)西昌市近30年来干旱总体偏轻,最近一次干湿突变发生于1987年;⑤各季节最近一次由干转湿的突变点,冬季在1999年、春季在1996年、夏季在1994年、秋季在1991年,呈逐季提前的趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | SPEI指数 M-K检验 干旱特征 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-08-11 |
Characteristics of Drought in Liangshan Based on SPEI |
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| Institution: | 1. Liangshan Meteorological Bureau, Xichang 615000, China;2. Mianyang Meteorological Bureau, Mianyang 621000, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on measured data from 1971~2017 in 17 national meteorological stations in Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture,the monthly,seasonal and annual standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for Liangshan and its affiliated counties were counted according to Penman-Monteiths model.The spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of SPEI were also analyzed,and the abrupt M-K test of SPEI was carried out on the representative of Xichang Meteorological Station in this study.The results showed:(1) The degree of drought could be reflected better by SPEI in Liangshan;(2) The interdecadal changes of drought in Liangshan were obvious;the drought were generally in 1970s,1980s and the 10s of the 21st century,relatively humid were happened in 1990s and 2000s;(3) The spatial distribution of drought frequency in Liangshan was uneven.The frequency of drought in the central region was higher than that in the northern and southern regions.(4) The drought in Xichang has been relatively light in the past 30 years,and the last dry-wet mutation occurred in 1987.(5) The last change point from dry to wet was in 1999 in winter,1996 in spring,1994 in summer and 1991 in autumn,showing a trend of advancing seasonally. |
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