| 三个气候系统模式对500hPa高度场预报的检验对比分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑嘉雯,蔡宏珂,吴捷,衡志炜,曾琳.三个气候系统模式对500hPa高度场预报的检验对比分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2021,41(2):115-124. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑嘉雯 蔡宏珂 吴捷 衡志炜 曾琳 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.广州市气象台，广州 511430 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目课题（2018YFC1505702）；国家自然科学基金项目（42075087，U20A2097）；四川省中央引导地方科技发展专项（2020ZYD032） |
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| 摘 要： | 基于BCC_CSM1.1m，NCEP_CFSv2和ECMWF_System5模式的历史回报和中国全球大气再分析系统资料，对500hPa位势高度和西太平洋副热带高压进行预报性能评估和可预报性分析。结果表明:三个模式在热带地区均具有较高的预报能力，BCC模式表现最为突出，EC模式预报稳定性最好，NCEP模式预报技巧最低；三个模式预报的距平相关系数均表现出明显的年际变化，并且在超过中等强度的厄尔尼诺事件后，预报技巧有所提高，进一步证实ENSO是各模式对500hPa位势高度季节性尺度的可预测源；模式对西太副高脊线指数的预报技巧最高，其次是强度指数，再次是面积指数，对脊点指数的预报表现最差。
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| 关 键 词： | 500hPa位势高度 季节预测 预报技巧 西太平洋副热带高压 气候系统模式 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-03-25 |
Performance of Seasonal Prediction of 500hPa Geopotential Height with Three Operational Climate Prediction Models |
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| Abstract: | Seasonal predictability of 500hPa Geopotential Height and the Western Pacific Subtropical High are investigated by using the hindcasts from the three operational climate prediction models, including BCC_CSM1.1m, NCEP_CFSv2 and ECMWF_System4. TCCs of 500hPa Geopotential Height show that all three models have high forecasting skills in tropical regions, while the performance of BCC model is superior. The stability of the EC model is the best among the three models. NCEP model has the lowest prediction skills among the three models. ACCs of all models have shown an obvious inter-annual variability, and the prediction skills are higher after the El Ni?o events above the medium intensity, which shows that ENSO is the predictable source of the seasonal scale for 500hPa geopotential height. Further analysis about WPSH indices forecast have shown that, from the perspective of forecast evolution, the forecasting skills is the highest for the ridge line index among all four WPSH indices, followed by the intensity index, and then the area index, while the prediction skills of the WPSH ridge point index are the worst. |
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