| 绵阳市度日数特征及其变化趋势分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 廖麒翔,徐仁鹏,谢雨竹,等.绵阳市度日数特征及其变化趋势分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2014(1):72-76. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 廖麒翔 徐仁鹏 谢雨竹 等 |
| |
| 作者单位： | [1] 成都信息工程学院,成都,610225 [2] 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,成都,610072 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家青年自然科学基金项目（41105101）,成都信息工程学院2011年校级大学生创新性实验计划资助项目（CX201101） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 从20世纪50年代以来,度日数一直作为气候变化与供暖关系的一个综合评价指标。基于全球变暖可能对我国供暖天数和温度产生深刻的影响,本文采用绵阳市1946~2005年共49年的日最低、最高气温资料,分析了绵阳市度日数年变化特征,并对其进行了趋势分析。结果表明:绵阳市历年供暖度日数最小值处于1998年,比1976年最大值低93.5%,10a年均供暖度日数变化趋势为二次曲线;制冷度日数波动性很大,1960~1979年在1500℃·d左右波动,1979~1990年在1400℃·d左右波动,1990年以后基本处于1500℃·d以上,10a年均制冷度日数拟合趋势曲线为三次曲线。基于Mann-Kendall(M-K)检验法,在α=0.05水平下,对绵阳市供暖和制冷度日数进行检验,研究发现:供暖度日数明显减少,1992年为突变起始年份;制冷度日数波动增长,且自1997年起突变。
|
| 关 键 词： | 绵阳市 度日数 M-K检验 变化趋势 |
Variation Characteristics of Degree-days and Trend Analysis in Mianyang |
| |
| LIAO Qixiang,XU Renpeng,XIE Yuzhu,ZHANG Mingyang,JIANG Xirui,WANG Ge,HAN Lin.Variation Characteristics of Degree-days and Trend Analysis in Mianyang[J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research,2014(1):72-76. |
| |
| Authors: | LIAO Qixiang XU Renpeng XIE Yuzhu ZHANG Mingyang JIANG Xirui WANG Ge HAN Lin |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Chengdu University of lnformation Technology, Chengdu 610225, China; 2. Institute of Plateau meteorology, CMA, Chengdu 610072, China) |
| |
| Abstract: | Since the 1950s, the degree -days has been the comprehensive evaluation indicator between the climate change and the heating. This paper, based on the background of global warming, using the lowest temperature and the highest temperature data from 1946 to 2005 （a total of 49 years）, analyzes the degree -days＇ variation characteristics and its trends. Results shows that： the heating degree -days has the minimum value in the 1998, which is smaller 93.5% than the maximum value in the 1976, and the average of 10 year＇ s the heating degree - days has the trend of quadratic curve. Cooling degree - days has volatile characters, 1960 - 1979＇s cooling degreedays floats at about 1500 ℃ .d, 1979 - 1990＇s cooling degree -days floats at about 1400 ℃ .d, and the cooling degree -days almost is above 1500℃ .d after the 1990 . The average of 10 year＇ s cooling degree - days fits to the cubic trend curve . Testing the heating and cooling degree - days based on the Mann - Kendall （ M - K） test, under α = 0.05 level , the study founds that ： the heating degree - days decreases significantly, and mutations start in the 1992, cooling degree- days grows in fluctuation, and mutates from the 1997. |
| |
| Keywords: | degree - days M - K test variation trend |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《高原山地气象研究》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《高原山地气象研究》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
