| 四川省康定市泥石流灾害与降水预报阈值确定 |
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| 引用本文： | 王敏,王严琪,孙树峻,徐瑗.四川省康定市泥石流灾害与降水预报阈值确定[J].高原山地气象研究,2021,41(4):125-130. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王敏 王严琪 孙树峻 徐瑗 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川省甘孜藏族自治州气象局，康定 626000 |
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| 基金项目： | 甘孜藏族自治州气象局科技创新开发课题（2021-3） |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对康定市历史泥石流灾害资料与历史气象降雨资料进行统计分析，揭示了康定市泥石流灾害与降雨的关系特征，并在此基础上，研制了康定市1h、3h降雨量诱发泥石流预警指标。结果表明:康定市境内各地均有发生泥石流灾害的可能性，东部地区是泥石流的高易发区。康定市境内泥石流灾害发生与当日降雨量、短时强降雨、前期有效降雨量关系密切。降雨量大且降雨强度强的月份（6~8月）易发生泥石流灾害。短时强降水的强度越大，发生灾害的风险越大，强降水出现频率最高的时段（19:00~02:00）也是泥石流高发时段。当降水强度<10mm/h和20mm/3h时，有出现泥石流的可能性，泥石流灾害气象风险等级为4~5级；当降水强度达到10~20mm/h、21~35mm/3h时，发生泥石流的可能性较大，风险等级为3级；当降水强度达到21~35mm/h、36~50mm/3h时，泥石流发生的可能性大，风险等级为2级；当降水强度>35mm/h、50mm/3h时，泥石流发生的可能性极大，风险等级为1级。
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| 关 键 词： | 泥石流 特征 降水 预报 阈值 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-06-18 |
Debris Flow Disasters and Precipitation Forecast Threshold Determination in Kangding City |
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| Institution: | Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture Meteorological Bureau, Kangding 626000, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the statistical analysis of historical debris flow disaster data and historical meteorological rainfall data in Kangding City, the relationship between debris flow disaster and rainfall in Kangding City was revealed. On the basis, the early warning indexs of debris flow induced by 1-hour and 3-hour rainfall in Kangding City were developed. The possibility of debris flow disaster occurs in all parts of Kangding City, and the eastern region is highly prone to debris flow. The occurrence of debris flow disaster in Kangding City is closely related to daily rainfall, short-term heavy rainfall and early effective rainfall. Debris flow is prone to occur in months with heavy rainfall and strong rainfall intensity (June to August). The greater the intensity of short-term heavy rainfall is, the greater the risk of disasters is. The period with the highest frequency of heavy precipitation (19:00~02:00) is also the period with high occurrence of debris flow. When the precipitation intensity is less than 10mm/h and 20mm/h, debris flow is possible, and the meteorological risk level of debris flow disasater is 4~5. When the precipitation intensity is 10~20mm/h and 21~35mm/3h, debris flow is more likely to occur, and the meteorological risk level of debris flow disaster is level 3. When the precipitation intensity is 21~35mm/h and 36~50mm/3h, debris flow is more likely to occur, and the meteorological risk level of debris flow disaster is level 2. When the precipitation intensity is greater than 35mm/h and 50mm/3h, debris flow is very likely to occur, and the meteorological risk level of debris flow disaster is level 1. |
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