| 基于短时强降水概率预报的模糊检验试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘莹,肖递祥,陈莹.基于短时强降水概率预报的模糊检验试验[J].高原山地气象研究,2020,40(4):16-21. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘莹 肖递祥 陈莹 |
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| 作者单位： | 高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都610072;四川省气象台,成都610072;高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都610072;四川省气象台,成都610072;高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都610072;四川省气象台,成都610072 |
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| 基金项目： | 基于多尺度模式的强降水短期精细化概率预报方法(2017YFC1502004)；高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室项目(2017-青年-05)；川气课题2012-开发-01 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用短时强降水概率预报模型生成短时强降水(≥20mm/h)概率预报产品，并对其进行“点对面”模糊检验试验。结果表明:短时强降水(≥20mm/h)概率预报和SWC_WARMS模式最大小时雨量(≥20mm/h)的“点对面”TS评分均明显高于相应的“点对点”评分，短时强降水(≥20mm/h)预报结果可在30～40km范围内进行调整；短时强降水(≥20mm/h)概率预报在概率为30%时TS评分达到最大，Bias接近为1，预报偏差最小；短时强降水(≥20mm/h)概率预报比SWC_WARMS模式最大小时雨量(≥20mm/h)预报更具有参考价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 短时强降水 概率预报 模糊检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-10-13 |
Fuzzy Verification Test of Probabilistic Forecast of Short-Term Heavy Precipitation |
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| Institution: | 1. Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chendu 610072, China;2. Sichuan Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | The fuzzy verification test of probabilistic forecast product of short-term heavy precipitation ?(≥20mm/h) have been carried out,which was generated by the probabilistic forecast model of short-term heavy precipitation. The results showed that: The “point to area” threat score of short-term heavy precipitation (≥20mm/h) probability forecast and the “point to area” threat score of maximum hourly precipitation (≥20mm/h) of SWC_WARMS model were both significantly higher than the “point to point” threat score,the short-term heavy precipitation (≥20mm/h) forecast results can be adjusted within the range of 30km-40km. When the probability of short-term heavy precipitation?(≥20mm/h) forecast was 30%,the threat score reached the maximum,and the Bias was close to 1,the forecast deviation was the minimum. The short-term heavy precipitation (≥20mm/h) probability forecast was more valuable than the maximum hourly precipitation (≥20mm/h) forecast of SWC_WARMS model. |
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