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SWCWARMS及ECMWF模式对四川盆地暖区型和斜压锋生型暴雨预报检验分析
引用本文:曹萍萍,肖递祥,王佳津,等.SWCWARMS及ECMWF模式对四川盆地暖区型和斜压锋生型暴雨预报检验分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2018,38(1):22-29.
作者姓名:曹萍萍  肖递祥  王佳津  
作者单位:1. 四川省气象台, 成都 610072;
基金项目:2017年度四川省重点实验室(省重实验室2017-重点-01)2017年度中国气象局核心业务发展专项(YBGJXM (2017)1A-9)2017年度山洪项目(支撑山洪地质灾害精细化预报的高分辨率数值预报业务系统建设)
摘    要:利用2014~2016年5~10月四川盆地所有观测站资料及SWCWARMS模式、ECMWF模式同时段20时起报的24h累积降水资料,基于邻域法FSS、ETS评分指数检验了两模式对于高能暖区型暴雨及斜压锋生型暴雨预报的预报性能。主要结论为:(1)两种类型暴雨过程平均误差均是SWCWARMS模式较ECMWF模式大,且误差值为正,表明模式以湿偏差为主;(2)高能暖区型暴雨FSS评分各降水量级各空间尺度均是SWCWARMS模式高于ECMWF模式;斜压锋生型暴雨50mm以下量级降水在36km以下空间尺度ECMWF模式FSS评分高于SWCWARMS模式,54km以上空间尺度SWCWARMS模式评分较高,大暴雨量级降水各尺度下均是SWCWARMS模式评分较高;(3)高能暖区型暴雨ETS评分暴雨、大暴雨量级SWCWARMS模式评分较高,中雨、大雨ECMWF模式预报更优;斜压锋生型暴雨ETS评分,中雨、大雨及暴雨量级降水预报ECMWF优于SWCWARMS,大暴雨量级SWCWARMS模式预报更优。 

关 键 词:SWCWARMS模式    ECMWF模式    高能暖区型暴雨    斜压锋生型暴雨    降水检验
收稿时间:2018-02-03

The Verification of Precipitation Forecast of Warm Zone and Baroclinic Front Heavy Rains for Sichuan Basin between SWCWARMS and ECMWF Model
Institution:1. Sichuan Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072;2. Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China
Abstract:Using 24 hour observation precipitation data from May to December of 2014-2015 and the precipitation forecasting of SWCWARMS model and ECMWF model which begins at 20: 00 pm in the same period, based on Fractions Skill Score and Equitable Threat Score we have verified the precipitation forecast ability of the two models about high-energy warm zone heavy rains and baroclinic front heavy rains. The results show that: (1) SWCWARMS model's average error is larger than ECMWF model, and the value is positive which shows that the model has wet deviation mostly. (2) For high-energy warm zone heavy rains, SWCWARMS model always has higher FSS score than the other one; For baroclinic front heavy rains, when the threshold value is less than 50 mm and the spatial scale is less than 36 km, ECMWF model has higher FSS score, and above 54 km or the threshold value is more than 100 mm SWCWARMS model's FSS score is higher. (3) For high-energy warm zone heavy rains, SWCWARMS model's ETS score is higher when the threshold value is more than 50 mm, and on the contrary ECMWF model performs better. For baroclinic front heavy rains, SWCWARMS model's ETS score is higher when the threshold value is more than 100 mm, and on the contrary ECMWF model performs better. 
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