| 基于西南区域模式预报的川西高原东坡过渡带降水地形订正试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄楚惠,牛金龙,陈朝平,肖递祥,龙柯吉,张平.基于西南区域模式预报的川西高原东坡过渡带降水地形订正试验[J].高原山地气象研究,2022,42(2):38-45. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄楚惠 牛金龙 陈朝平 肖递祥 龙柯吉 张平 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.四川省气象台/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室，成都 610072 |
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| 基金项目： | 四川省科技计划重点研发专项（2022YFS0542）；2021年中国气象局创新发展专项（CXFZ2021Z33，CXFZ2021J27）；高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目（SCQXKJYJXMS202113，SCQXKJZD202101）；四川省气象局智能网格预报创新团队；国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFC1507200，2021YFC3000905）；国家自然科学基金（42175002，42075013，41765003） |
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| 摘 要： | 基于西南区域模式（SWCWARMS）网格降水预报，通过地形降水估算量构建地形降水订正方程，分别应用模式地形和实际地形的订正方案对2020年6~8月发生在川西高原东坡过渡带的11次强降水过程进行订正试验。结果表明:应用模式地形订正后各量级降水预报的平均TS（Threat Score）评分较模式预报均有所提高，大雨及以上量级TS评分提高4%以上，平均空报、漏报率均减小，订正效果优于应用实况地形订正的效果。该方法具有普适性，对于地形复杂的川西高原东坡、攀西河谷及盆地西部沿山地区，预报和实况落区相似、不相似及强、弱降水过程均适用。
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| 关 键 词： | 川西高原东坡过渡带 西南区域模式 降水订正 地形降水订正方程 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-09-24 |
Topographic Correction Experiment of Precipitation in the Transitional Zone of the Eastern Slope of Western Sichuan Plateau Based on the Southwest Regional Model Forecast |
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| Institution: | 1.Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Observatory / Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disaster in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China2.Chengdu Meteorological Service , Chengdu 610071, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the grid precipitation forecast of Southwest Center WRF ADAS Real-time Modeling System, the terrain precipitation correction equation is constructed by calculating the terrain precipitation estimation. 11 heavy precipitation processes occurred in the transition zone of the eastern slope of the Western Sichuan Plateau from June to August 2020 are corrected by using the model and actual terrain correction schemes respectively. The results show that: Compared with the model forecasts, the average TS scores of precipitation forecasts of various levels were improved after the application of the model terrain correction, and the TS scores of heavy rain and above were increased by more than 4%, the average false alarm rate and fail rate were both reduced. The correction effect was better than that of the actual terrain correction. This method had universal applicability, for the complex terrain on the eastern slope of the Western Sichuan Plateau, the Panxi River Valley and the western mountainous areas of the Basin, it was applicable to alternative precipitation processes which were similar or dissimilar to the forecast and the actual situation, as well as strong or weak precipitation processes. |
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