| 2021年攀西地区精细化预报与数值模式小时降水检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 王佳津,曹萍萍,肖递祥.2021年攀西地区精细化预报与数值模式小时降水检验[J].高原山地气象研究,2022,42(3):75-87. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王佳津 曹萍萍 肖递祥 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.四川省气象台, 成都 610072 |
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| 基金项目： | 四川省科技计划重点研发项目（2022YFS0542）；中国科学院战略性先导科技专项（A 类）（XDA23090103）；中国气象局西南区域气象中心成渝双城经济圈气象服务技术创新团队；高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目（SCQXKJYJXMS202214，SCQXKJQN202213） |
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| 摘 要： | 基于精细化预报（GDDZ）和CMA-MESO、西南区域模式（SWC）两家高分辨率模式的小时降水预报，从TS（Threat Score）评分、小时降水频次、小时降水强度、峰值时间等方面，对2021年汛期攀西地区16次降水过程进行小时尺度的检验。结果表明:（1）从逐时降水来看，在晴雨（0.1 mm）TS评分中，GDDZ在00~11时表现较优，CMA-MESO模式在12~23时表现较优；在大雨（7 mm）和暴雨（15 mm）TS评分中，CMA-MESO模式表现较优。（2）从小时降水频次来看，SWC模式预报的降水发生频次空间分布与实况更为接近；从小时降水强度来看，GDDZ预报的降水强度与实况更为接近。（3）从降水量峰值时间来看，GDDZ与实况更为接近；从小时降水强度峰值和降雨频率峰值时间来看，CMA-MESO模式预报与实况更为接近。
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| 关 键 词： | 小时降水 精细化预报 CMA-MESO 西南区域模式 攀西地区 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-10-18 |
Specialized Forecast and Hourly Precipitation Test of Numerical Model for Panxi Region in 2021 |
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| Institution: | 1.Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072, China2.Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the hourly precipitation of the specialized forecast (GDDZ) and two high-resolution models, CMA-MESO and Southwest Regional Model (SWC), combined with the TS score, hourly frequency, hourly intensity and peak time, 16 precipitaion porcesses in Panxi region in 2021 are tested on hourly scale. The conclusions are as follows: (1) From the hourly precipitation TS score, in the fine rain (0.1 mm), GDDZ performed better from 00:00 to 11:00, and CMA-MESO model performed better from 12:00 to 23:00. CMA-MESO model performed better in the TS scores of heavy rain (7 mm) and heavy rain (15 mm). (2) From the perspective of hourly frequency, the spatial distribution of precipitation frequency predicted by SWC model was closer to the actual situation. In terms of hourly intensity, the precipitation intensity of GDDZ was closer to the actual situation. (3) GDDZ was closer to the actual precipitation peak time. CMA-MESO model was more similar to the real precipitation intensity and peak time of rainfall frequency. |
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