| 西岭雪山滑雪场秋冬旅游降雪预报研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 周斌,赵静,青泉,杨淑群,刘佳.西岭雪山滑雪场秋冬旅游降雪预报研究[J].高原山地气象研究,2020,40(1):74-78. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周斌 赵静 青泉 杨淑群 刘佳 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川省气候中心,成都 610072;四川省成都市气象局,成都 611130;四川省气象台,成都 610072 |
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| 基金项目： | 基于MCI指数的区域干旱强度评估技术研究(SCQXKJQN2019006) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用大邑、西岭雪山滑雪场及周边区域自动站2005~2017年每年10月~次年2月逐日最低温度资料,通过统计分析区域自动站与大邑站候平均最低温度差值,建立以大邑本站最低温度预报值为基础,加上逐候最低温度差值后得到区域各站的日最低温度预报的候最低温度差值订正方法;用距滑雪场最近的格点温度预报数据代替滑雪场站点温度预报,选出最低温度,以气温预报变化量,建立最低气温预报的模式温度订正方法;建立以候最低温度差值订正和模式温度订正进行加权平均的最低温度集成订正方法。通过对以上三种最低温度预报方法进行检验,发现最低温度集成订正方法预报准确率最高。基于最低温度集成订正方法预报西岭雪山滑雪场的最低温度,结合智能网格降水预报结果和降雪最低温度阈值判别,建立西岭雪山降雪的订正预报方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 西岭雪山 降雪 最低温度 预报方法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-03-17 |
Study on Tourism Landscape Snowfall Forecast of Ski Resorts in Xiling Snow Mountain in Autumn and Winter |
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| ZHOU Bin,ZHAO Jin,QING Quan,YANG Shuqun,LIU Jia.Study on Tourism Landscape Snowfall Forecast of Ski Resorts in Xiling Snow Mountain in Autumn and Winter[J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research,2020,40(1):74-78. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Bin ZHAO Jin QING Quan YANG Shuqun LIU Jia |
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| Institution: | 1. Sichuan Provincial Climate Center, Chengdu 610072, China;2. Chengdu Meteorological Bureau, Chengdu 611130, China;3. Sichuan Provincial Meteorological observatory, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, we use the daily minimum temperature data of Dayi, Xiling Snow Mountain Ski Resort and the surrounding area from October to February of each year from 2005 to 2017, temperature and precipitation data from ECMWF.Through statistical analysis of the difference between the average minimum temperature of regional automatic station and Dayi station.Based on the forecast value of the lowest temperature of Dayi station and the difference of the lowest temperature one by one, the correction method of the difference of the lowest temperature one by one is established.we replaced the temperature forecast of the ski site with the grid temperature forecast data closest to the ski resort, then selected the lowest temperature, and used the temperature forecast change to establish a model temperature correction method for the lowest temperature forecast. We established a integrated correction method of the minimum temperature based on the weighted average of the minimum temperature difference correction and the model temperature correction. Based on the above three methods, combined with the results of intelligent grid precipitation prediction and the minimum temperature threshold for snowfall.Three revised prediction methods for the lowest snowfall temperature in Xiling Snow Mountain were established. By examining the above three lowest temperature prediction methods, it was found that the lowest temperature integrated correction method had the highest forecast accuracy. |
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| Keywords: | Xiling Snow Mountain snowfall minimum temperature forecast |
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