| 金沙江中下游面雨量分布特征及预报检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐诚,淡嘉,宋雯雯,陶丽.金沙江中下游面雨量分布特征及预报检验[J].高原山地气象研究,2020,40(2):38-42. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐诚 淡嘉 宋雯雯 陶丽 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川省气象服务中心,成都 610072;四川省气象服务中心,成都 610072;四川省气象服务中心,成都 610072;四川省气象服务中心,成都 610072 |
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| 基金项目： | 四川省气象服务中心处级项目(SCQF2019009)；高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目重点专项(SCQXKJZD2020003) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于2019年4～10月金沙江中下游逐日面雨量实况资料、西南区域数值天气预报业务模式(SWC-WARMS)和中央气象台智能网格预报模式(NWGD)0～24小时降水预报对金沙江中下游月累计面雨量、日面雨量的月极值分布、暴雨频次分布特征进行分析并做了检验评估。结果表明:(1)金沙江中下游月累计面雨量主要集中在6～9月，强降雨天气也主要出现在6～9月。(2)2019年4～10月期间总共出现暴雨次数22次，出现暴雨次数最多的区域是A区，D区没有出现暴雨。(3)西南区域模式对于C区、D区、E区月累计面雨量的预报以及对于A区和C区小雨和中雨的预报优于中央气象台预报模式。(4)平均绝对误差(Ea)、模糊评分(Mp)和TS评分(Tsk)结果显示中央台智能网格预报模式上优于西南区域预报模式。
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| 关 键 词： | 金沙江中下游 面雨量 预报检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-05-13 |
The Distribution Characteristics of Areal Rainfall and Performance Evaluation in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Jinsha River |
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| Institution: | Sichuan Meteorological Service Centre, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the daily data of daily rainfall,precipitation forecast of 0~24 hours in the southwest center - wrf adas real-time modeling system(SWC-WARMS) and the intelligent grid forecast model of the Central Meteorological Observatory(NWGD) on middle and lower reaches of the Jinsha River from April to October 2019, we analyzed the cumulative monthly areal rainfall,the monthly extreme value distribution of daily areal rainfall and the characteristics of rainstorm frequency distribution. The results are as follows:(1) The monthly accumulated areal rainfall and heavy rainfall are mainly from June to September. (2) A total of 22 rainstorms occurred between April and October 2019. The area with the highest number of heavy rains is area A,and there is no heavy rain in area D.(3)The SWC-WARMS is better than the NWGD in prediction of monthly accumulated areal rainfall in area C,D and E,and in the prediction of light rain and moderate rain in area Aand C. (4)The Mean Absolute Error(Ea),Fuzzy Grading(MP) and Treat Score(TS) results show that Intelligent grid forecast model of the Central Meteorological Observatory better than the numerical forecast model of the southwest region to forecast the areal rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of Jinsha River as a whole. |
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