| 基于灰色关联度的暴雨事件灾害评估和预评估方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴哲红,陈贞宏,叶帮,方庆文.基于灰色关联度的暴雨事件灾害评估和预评估方法[J].贵州气象,2011,35(6):6-9. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴哲红 陈贞宏 叶帮 方庆文 |
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| 作者单位： | 贵州省安顺市气象局,贵州安顺,561000 |
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| 基金项目： | 基金项目:2009年贵州省气象科技开放防灾减灾基金项目黔气科合KF[2009]12号资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 该文统计了安顺市1986—2009年的暴雨站点资料及其对应的灾害资料，通过对历史气象资料和灾情数据库的综合分析，建立了暴雨灾情数据库。采用灰色关联度方法建立了暴雨灾害的评估方法，建立了划分标准，将暴雨灾害灾情划分为5个等级，经与实际灾情比较表明划分结果合理可用。研究了暴雨引发的灾害与气象因子的关系，建立了基于数值预报释用的暴雨预评估模型，在以上研究基础上建立了安顾暴雨灾害评估和预评估系统，已投入业务使用。
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雨灾害 灰色关联度 评估 预评估 |
Rainstorm disaster assessment and pre -assessment methods Based on Grey Correlation Degree |
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| WU Zhe-hong,CHEN Zhen-hong,Ye Bang,Fang Qing-wen.Rainstorm disaster assessment and pre -assessment methods Based on Grey Correlation Degree[J].Journal of Guizhou Meteorology,2011,35(6):6-9. |
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| Authors: | WU Zhe-hong CHEN Zhen-hong Ye Bang Fang Qing-wen |
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| Institution: | 1(1 Anshun Meteorological Office,Guizhou Province,Anshun 561000, 2 Guizhou key laboratory of mountounious climate and resources,Guiyang 550002,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on historical weather data and comprehensive disaster data,, storm disaster in Anshun City from 1986 to 2009 was studied, established a rainstorm disaster database, using gray correlation degree method , we established standards for the storm disaster , divided the disaster into five grades o The results showed that the classification results was reasonably and available. We also studied the relationship between meteorological factors and Disaster , numerical prediction results was used to establish a pre - assessment equation~ Based on the above findings ,we established the Anshun storm disaster assessment and pre - assessment system which has been put into operational use. |
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| Keywords: | torm Disaster Grey Correlation Degree Assessment Pre - assessment |
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