| 不同排放情景下贵州21世纪气候变化预估 |
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| 引用本文： | 张娇艳,白慧,吴战平,严小冬,徐智慧.不同排放情景下贵州21世纪气候变化预估[J].贵州气象,2011,35(6):1-6. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张娇艳 白慧 吴战平 严小冬 徐智慧 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 贵州省气候中心,贵州贵阳,550002
2. 贵州省贵阳市气象局,贵州贵阳,550001 |
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| 基金项目： | 资助项目:贵州省科学技术基金项目，贵阳市社会发展与民生科技计划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用IPCCAR4提供的模式预估结果，分析了不同排放情景下21世纪贵州气候变化特征，结果表明：21世纪由于人类排放的增加，贵州省将继续变暖、变湿。到21世纪后期（2071--2099年）贵州省温度比常年高2～3，2℃，降水比常年多3．8％-5．8％。且在SRESA．2（高排放）、A1B（中排放）、B1（低排放）情景下贵州省年平均温度（降水）整体变化幅度分别为4．0℃／100a（136mm／100a）、3．6℃／100a（96mm／100a）、2．1℃／100a（61mm／100a），体现了排放量越高，增温（增湿）越显著的特征。从季节特征来看，不同情景下冬季温度的增加趋势都大于其它季节；冬季降水预估没有明显的变化趋势，其余季节基本上以上升趋势为主。其中在A1B、B1排放情景下21世纪前期（2011--2040年）降水有减少趋势，在A2情景下降水无明显变化趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | IPCC AR4 排放情景 气候变化预估 气温变化 降水变化 |
Projections of Climate Change in the 21st Century in Guizhou under Various Emission Scenarios |
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| ZHANG Jiao-yan,Bai Hui,WU Zhan-ping,YAN Xiao-dong,XU Zhi-hui.Projections of Climate Change in the 21st Century in Guizhou under Various Emission Scenarios[J].Journal of Guizhou Meteorology,2011,35(6):1-6. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Jiao-yan Bai Hui WU Zhan-ping YAN Xiao-dong XU Zhi-hui |
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| Institution: | 1.Guizhou Climate center,Guiyang,Guizhou 550002;2.Guiyang Meteorological Bureau,Guiyang,Guizhou 550002) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the simulation outputs provided by IPCC -AR4, the possible climate change in Guizhou during the 21 st century has been analyzed under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results indicate that the climate would become warmer and wetter in Guizhou in the 21st century due to the increase in gas emission. In the late 21st Century （2071 -2099 ）, the temperature would be 2 - 3.2℃ higher than the normal while the rainfall would increase by 3.8 -5.8%. Moreover, under the circumstances of SRES A2, A1B and B1, the annual mean increase in temperature （rainfall） would be 4.0℃/100a（ 136mm/100a）, 3.6℃/100a（96mm/100a） and 2.1℃/ 100a（61mm/100a） respectively, which suggests a warmer （wetter） trend with more gas emission. According to the seasonal characteristics, the winter temperature increase is higher than other seasons in different emission sce- narios. The winter precipitation does not show any significant variations but the rainfalls in other seasons increase. Additionally, the precipitations during the early 21st century would decrease considering the effects of the SRES A1B and B1 but show no significant change with SRES A2. |
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| Keywords: | IPCC- AR4 emission scenarios climate change projection temperature change precipitation change |
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