| 广东省冬季逐日最低气温的预报方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 翁向宇,纪忠萍,曾沁.广东省冬季逐日最低气温的预报方法[J].广东气象,2010,32(5):1-4. |
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| 作者姓名： | 翁向宇 纪忠萍 曾沁 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]广东省气象台 [2]广州市气象台,广东广州510080 |
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| 基金项目： | 广东省气象局气象科技项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了能结合数值预报产品做好广东省逐日最低气温的预报,利用1998~2007年冬季(11月~次年2月)美国NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和常规气象观测资料,选取20°~27.5°N,107.5°~117.5°E区域内的海平面气压、850 hPa温度、850 hPa相对湿度、850 hPa纬向风(u)、850 hPa经向风分量(v)和500hPa位势高度等6个要素作为预报因子,以韶关、梅州、广州、阳江、汕头等5个站分别作为广东5个部分的代表站,采用能选取"最优"因子的逐步回归方法建立5个代表站的11月~次年2月逐日的最低气温预报方程,并对预报方程进行检验。结果表明:采用逐步回归预报方法建立的广东省5个代表站的逐日最低气温预报方程具有一定的预报能力,但也存在预报结果比实况偏低的不足。
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| 关 键 词： | 天气学 最低气温预报 多元逐步回归 效果检验 广东省 |
A Forecast Method for Daily Winter Minimum Temperature in Guangdong |
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| WENG Xiang-yu,JI Zhong-ping,ZENG Qin.A Forecast Method for Daily Winter Minimum Temperature in Guangdong[J].Journal of Guangdong Meteorology,2010,32(5):1-4. |
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| Authors: | WENG Xiang-yu JI Zhong-ping ZENG Qin |
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| Institution: | 1.Guangdong Meteorological Observatory;2.Guangzhou Meteorological Observatory,Guangzhou 510080,China) |
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| Abstract: | To improve the forecast of daily minimum temperature in Guangodng by interpretation of numerical prediction model,this paper performs a forecast experiment based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the observational data of extreme minimum temperature from 1998 to 2007.Six weather elements within the region（20°~27.5°N,107.5°~117.5°E） are selected as predictors,which are sea level pressure,air temperature at 850 hPa,relative humidity at 850 hPa,zonal wind（u） at 850 hPa,meridional wind（v） at 850 hPa and geopotential height at 500 hPa,to establish forecast equations for 5 representative stations of ShaoGuan,MeiZhou,GuangZhou,YangJiang and ShanTou in Guangdong using multivariate regression model with optimal factor.The forecast equations turn out to be useful yet with lower forecasted temperature compared to the ground truths. |
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| Keywords: | synoptic meteorology minimum temperature prediction multivariate stepwise regression method forecast verification Guangdong province |
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