| 基于智能计算的广西大风短临预报预警系统的产品检验 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 郭彬,卓健,周冬静,苏彦,毛家燊,陈少斌,奉意杰.基于智能计算的广西大风短临预报预警系统的产品检验[J].气象研究与应用,2021(1):80-84. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 郭彬 卓健 周冬静 苏彦 毛家燊 陈少斌 奉意杰 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 崇左市气象局;广西壮族自治区气象信息中心;广西壮族自治区气象技术装备中心 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 广西气象科研计划面上项目(桂气科2019M24)。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 利用机器学习和人工智能技术研发了广西大风短临预报预警系统,该系统的产品与同期广西各地气象局发布的大风预警信号(以下简称“人工预警”)进行比较分析。结果表明:(1)按业务评分规定,大风预警系统在漏报率和命中率方面更优,人工预警在TS评分和空报率方面更优;(2)有效提前预警情况下,大风预警系统在大风蓝色、黄色预警和不分级预警中TS评分较高。基于对大风预警系统和人工预警的数量、TS评分和预警提前量的差异分析,广西大风短临预报预警系统的产品性能达到同期人工预警水平。
|
| 关 键 词： | 智能计算 大风 短临预报 预警系统 验证 |
Product inspection of Guangxi gale short-term forecast and early warning system based on intelligent computing |
| |
| Guo Bin,Zhuo Jian,Zhou Dongjing,Su Yan,Mao Jiashen,Chen Shaobin,Feng Yijie.Product inspection of Guangxi gale short-term forecast and early warning system based on intelligent computing[J].Journal of Guangxi Meteorology,2021(1):80-84. |
| |
| Authors: | Guo Bin Zhuo Jian Zhou Dongjing Su Yan Mao Jiashen Chen Shaobin Feng Yijie |
| |
| Institution: | (Chongzuo Meteorological Bureau,Chongzuo Guangxi 532200;Guangxi Meteorological Information Center,Nanning Guangxi 530022;Guangxi Meteorological Technical Equipment Center,Nanning Guangxi 532200) |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on machine learning and artificial intelligence technology,Guangxi gale short-term forecasting and early warning system was developed.In order to evaluate the forecasting and early warning ability of the system,the products of the system were compared with the gale early warning signals(hereinafter referred to as"manual early warning")issued by meteorological bureaus of Guangxi in the same period.The results showed that(1)according to the business scoring rules,the gale early warning system was better in the missing report rate and hitting accuracy,while the manual early warning system was better in the TS score and empty report rate.(2)In the case of effective early warning,the gale warning system had a higher TS score in the blue,yellow warning and non-graded gale warning.Based on the difference analysis of the number,TS score and early warning amount,the product performance of Guangxi gale short-term early warning system reached the level of manual early warning in the same period. |
| |
| Keywords: | gale short-term early warning accuracy effective early warning |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
|
