| 广西雷暴天气预报指标研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 梁维亮,屈梅芳,赖珍权,翟丽萍.广西雷暴天气预报指标研究[J].气象研究与应用,2014,35(3):15-19. |
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| 作者姓名： | 梁维亮 屈梅芳 赖珍权 翟丽萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 广西气象台,广西南宁,530022 |
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| 基金项目： | 广西自然科学2012GXNSFAA053191，广西自然科学基金项目:2013GXNSFAA019288，广西自然科学基金项目:2014GXNSFAA118290 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用2003-2012年的地面填图和探空资料,统计常用对流参数满足指定阈值条件时广西6个探空站出现雷暴天气的概率（简称＂雷暴概率＂）。统计结果表明：整层比湿积分（IQ）、K指数（KI）和抬升指数（LI）与雷暴概率有显著的线性关系,当IQ、KI增大,或LI减小时,雷暴概率增大。对流有效位能（CAPE）在0-200J·kg-1之间增长时雷暴概率迅速增大,但超过200J·kg-1后雷暴概率增大不明显。根据统计结果,选取IQ、KI和LI作为预报因子,CAPE作为消空因子,定义了一个适用于广西雷暴天气的经验预报指标。用2013年资料做试报检验,结果表明该指标对6小时内的雷暴天气有较好的预报能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 雷暴天气 IQ KI LI CAPE 经验预报指标 |
Research on the Forecasting Index for the Thunderstorms in Guangxi |
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| Liang Wei-liang,Qu Mei-fang,Lai Zhen-quan,Zhai Li-ping.Research on the Forecasting Index for the Thunderstorms in Guangxi[J].Journal of Guangxi Meteorology,2014,35(3):15-19. |
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| Authors: | Liang Wei-liang Qu Mei-fang Lai Zhen-quan Zhai Li-ping |
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| Institution: | (Guangxi Meteorological Observation, Nanning, 530022) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the surface and sounding data from 2003 to 2012, the thunderstorms probability（TP） in the 6 sounding stations of Guangxi ware calculated under the index within the given range. The result showed that the Integral（ IQ）, KI and MDPI had significant linear correlation. When IQ, KI increased or MDPI decreased, TP increased. TP greatly increased when CAPE increased from 0 to 200J·kg-1, but TP slowly increased when CAPE was larger than 200 J·kg-1. According to the statistical results, an experiential forecasting index was defined by comprising IQ, KI, MDPI as forecast factors and CAPE as negative factor. The examination which used the data of 2013 proved that the experiential forecasting index was effective and practical. |
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| Keywords: | Thunderstorms IQ KI MDPI CAPE Experiential Forecasting Index |
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