| 西北太平洋副热带高压强度的统计预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 金一鸣,蔡金祥,刘宁生.西北太平洋副热带高压强度的统计预报[J].应用气象学报,1986,1(1):18-25. |
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| 作者姓名： | 金一鸣 蔡金祥 刘宁生 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.浙江省气象科学研究所
(金一鸣，蔡金祥)，浙江省气象科学研究所(刘宁生) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文对1982年7—9月中央气象台发布的东亚范围500百帕的48小时预报图进行了误差分析，发现40°N以北的中高纬度预报误差较小，而在35°N以南的较低纬度，尤其是副热带地区，预报误差较大。因此我们对西风带高度场和副热带高度场分别进行了车贝雪夫多项式和自然正交函数展开。分析表明，他们之间具有一定的关联。在此基础上，提出了一个用车贝雪夫系数去预报同一时刻副热带高压系数（时间系数），从而获得48小时副热带高度场的统计预报方法。通过独立样本检验并与B模式的预报结果进行对照，证明本文的预报方案具有参考和应用价值。
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The Prediction of the Intensity of the Subtropical Anticyclone in the Northwest Pacific by a Statistical Method |
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| Institution: | (Institute of Meteorological Science of Zhejiang Province) |
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| Abstract: | This paper consists of two parts. First, an analysis has been made on the errors in geopotential height at 500 hPa in 48 hours in Eastern Asia in summer 1982 by the operational numerical model given by SMA. It is found that the errors in the middle and high latitudes (to the north of 40oN) are much smaller than that in the subtropical and tropical regions. Second, we have made the expansion of the geopotential height at 500 hPa in middle and subtropical latitudes respectively, and have found that there is a definite relation between them. According to this relation, a statistical method for the 48-hr prediction of the geopotential height at 500 hPa in Eastern Asia in summer has been developed. We found that the 48-hr prediction of the height field in the subtropical region, especially the intensity of the subtropical anticyclone in the Northwest Pacific, is much better than the prediction given by the operational numerical model. |
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