| 用短期大风资料推算极值风速的一种方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 张秀芝,陈乾金.用短期大风资料推算极值风速的一种方法[J].应用气象学报,1993,4(1):105-111. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张秀芝 陈乾金 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.国家气象中心 北京100081
(张秀芝)，国家气象中心 北京100081(陈乾金) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据复合极值分布理论，试用二项—对数正态复合极值分布，利用海上短期实测大风资料求算海面多年一遇极值风速，并以此作为基础值，以沿岸站长年代大风经验公式计算风速为订正值，基础值与订正值的叠加作为海面多年一遇工程设计风速。该方法计算结果与皮尔逊Ⅲ型、泊松—龚贝尔复合极值分布计算结果相近，较单纯由二项—对数正态分布计算稳定度增大。
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| 关 键 词： | 二项—对数正态 短期大风资料 极值风速订正 |
A Method of Calculating the Extreme Wind Speed with the Short-term Observations of Maximum Wind |
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| Zhang Xiuzhi Chen Qianjin.A Method of Calculating the Extreme Wind Speed with the Short-term Observations of Maximum Wind[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1993,4(1):105-111. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Xiuzhi Chen Qianjin |
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| Institution: | 1.(National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081) |
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| Abstract: | According to the theory of complex extreme distribution, the extreme wind speed which recurs once every several years over the sea is estimated. The calculation is supported with the method of binomial log-normal distributioin based on the short-term observations of maximum wind. The estimated value is considered as the basic value and calculations with the empirical for mula incorparating the long-term observations of the maximum coastal wind is taken as the corrected value. The recurrent wind speed for engineering design over the sea is derived by summing up the basic value and corrected one. The result of estimation is approximately equal to those with the Person Ⅲ distribution and Poisson-Gumbel distribution and shows the greater stability than that derived from the binomial log-normal distribution. This method is more significant in estimating the extreme wind speed when the long-term observations are deficient |
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| Keywords: | Binomial log-normal Short-term maximum wind Extreme wind correction |
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