| 多变量状态空间预报法在旬雨量预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 严中伟.多变量状态空间预报法在旬雨量预报中的应用[J].应用气象学报,1996,7(4):443-451. |
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| 作者姓名： | 严中伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院大气物理研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科委PD85－27自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 结合单个时间序列构造状态空间进行预报和传统研究中多要素分析的思路，建立一种客观的综合多要素的状态空间预报法，应用于旬雨量预报。结果表明:考虑雨量和气温的多变量状态空间比仅考虑雨量序列具有更好的预报性能——437对值的预报相关提高5%，显示了多变量状态空间预报的可行性和潜力。
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| 关 键 词： | 多变量 状态空间 旬雨量变差 预报 |
Multi-variable State-space Method and its Application in Dekad Rainfall Forecast |
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| Yan Zhongwei.Multi-variable State-space Method and its Application in Dekad Rainfall Forecast[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1996,7(4):443-451. |
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| Authors: | Yan Zhongwei |
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| Institution: | 1.(Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029) |
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| Abstract: | Combining the two streams of thoughts, i. e.the state-space reconstructed from singlevariable time series and traditional multi-variable analysis,a multi-variable state-space forecasting method was developed and applied to dekad rainfall prediction for two regions ineastern China. The new method, by considering temperature and seasonality in rainfallstate-space, improved the prediction correlation by 5 % (for 437 pairs of data). The improvement remarkably deals with large rainfall deviations, thus having particular significanceto meteorological prediction. Great potential of further improvement through combiningmore reasonable variables in state-space could be expected. |
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| Keywords: | Multi-variable State-space Dekad-to-dekad rainfall variation Forecasting |
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