| 神威中期集合数值预报产品的业务应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 毛恒青,陈谊,等.神威中期集合数值预报产品的业务应用[J].应用气象学报,2002,13(1):56-61. |
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| 作者姓名： | 毛恒青 陈谊 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气象中心, 北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | “8 6 3 30 6 ZD 1 1 0 3 0 2”项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 目前神威中期集合数值预报产品包括 500 hPa 集合平均预报图、850 hPa 温度距平概率分布图、不同降水级别的降水概率分布图。 其中 500 hPa 集合平均预报场对欧亚大型环流形势演变趋势、春季风沙天气、降水天气过程以及夏季副热带高压变化趋势等的预报中得到应用, 850 hPa 温度距平概率分布图对未来气温变化趋势以及冷空气过程的预报有很好的使用价值, 而降水概率分布图可供预报员在做降水预报时参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 集合预报 集合平均 概率 |
| 收稿时间： | 2001-04-18 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年4月18日 |
The Operational Application of the Shenwei Medium-Range Ensemble Prediction Products |
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| Mao Hengqing,Chen Yi,Chen Dehui.The Operational Application of the Shenwei Medium-Range Ensemble Prediction Products[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2002,13(1):56-61. |
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| Authors: | Mao Hengqing Chen Yi Chen Dehui |
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| Institution: | National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | The products issued by the Shenwei Medium-range Ensemble Prediction System include the ensemble mean of 500 hPa height fields, the probabilities of 850 hPa temperature anomalies, and probabilities of rainfall. The ensemble-mean of 500 hPa height fields has been used in the forecast of the Eurasia circulation pattern, the sandstorm in spring, the rain process, and the change tendency of the subtropical high in summer. The probabilities of 850 hPa temperature anomalies are very useful in the forecast of temperature change tendency and cold air processes. The probabilities of rainfall have been used by forecasters directly. |
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| Keywords: | Ensemble prediction\ Ensemble mean\ Probability |
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