| 东北地区降水日数、强度和持续时间的年代际变化 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙凤华,杨素英,任国玉.东北地区降水日数、强度和持续时间的年代际变化[J].应用气象学报,2007,18(5):610-618. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙凤华 杨素英 任国玉 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所, 沈阳 110016 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局气候变化专项基金;科技部社会公益类专项项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用93站1951—2002年逐日降水资料，分析了东北地区不同强度降水事件的时空演变特征及其对旱涝的影响。结果表明:52年来，东北地区小雨事件对年降水量的贡献率呈显著增加趋势，中雨的贡献率略为减少，大雨和暴雨的贡献率变化不大；东北年总雨日减少趋势非常明显，雨日的减少主要体现在小雨日数的减少；年降水强度表现为明显的增强趋势，主要体现为小雨和暴雨强度增强；20世纪80年代中期之前多小雨事件，80年代中期之后多中雨以上强度的降水，特别是90年代中期之后多暴雨事件。在显著变暖的20世纪90年代，降水日数明显减少，但暴雨日数基本不变，强度明显增强。对东北地区降水量、降水变幅、降水事件的变化特征分析表明:该区域降水有向不均衡、极端化发展的趋势，旱涝灾害也有加重趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 东北地区 降水日数和降水强度 时空变化 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-01-20 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-01-26 |
Decade Variations of Precipitation Event Frequency, Intensity and Duration in the Northeast China |
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| Sun Fenghua Yang Suying Ren Guoyu.Decade Variations of Precipitation Event Frequency, Intensity and Duration in the Northeast China[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2007,18(5):610-618. |
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| Authors: | Sun Fenghua Yang Suying Ren Guoyu |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute of Atmospheric Environment, CMA, Shenyang 1100162.Lab for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, CMA, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | Against the background of global warming, study on climate extremes has become more important, especially the extreme precipitation events in Northeast China which is one of the most remarkable warming areas in China. Daily rainfall data of 93 weather stations in Northeast China from 1951 to 2002 are used to analyze the temporal and spatial variation of precipitation events, including rainstorm, heavy rain, light rain, extreme dry spell, extreme wetness spell etc. The spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation events change are studied. The main conclusions are summarized as follows. The number of days both of the total rain events and the light rain decreases. The contribution of light rain to annual precipitation is obviously increasing, the contribution of mediummagnitude rain is slightly decreasing, and the contributions of heavy rain remains unchanged. The annual rain day has a significant decreasing trend, which is mostly due to the decreasing of light rain day. The intensity of annual precipitation shows a significant increasing trend due to the increasing of the intensity of light rain and rainstorm. The events of light rain are more frequent before the middle of 1980s, the events of mediummagnitude rain are more frequent after the middle of 1980s, and the rainstorm events have an obviously positive trend after the middle of 1990s. In the significant warming period of 1991—2000, the total days with rain events have an obvious decreasing trend, but the rainstorm day hasn't an insignificant change, though the intensity of rainstorm is building up in the analyzed period. Since 1980s, the climatic variation range of precipitation (57 mm) has also an obvious increasing trend with the global warming. The value of precipitation variation range (77 mm) in the significant warming period of 1991—2000 reaches the biggest since 1960s, which is about one and a half times of other period of 1960s of 52 mm and 1970s of 41 mm. The long dry spells (there is no rain for 10 days or longer) are with a significant increasing trend. The long wetness spells(there is rain for 6 days or longer)are with a significant decreasing trend. The long dry spells are highly related to drought. Against the background of a little change in the total precipitation amount, the distribution of precipitation has become more asymmetric. The rain events have an obvious trend of extremeness. In a word, the extreme trend of precipitation is a reality during the last half of the 20th century in Northeast China with the remarkable warming. The extremity brings drought and waterlog which is likely to become more severe due to the change trend. Adverse influence on environment, especially agriculture production, will be brought. |
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| Keywords: | Northeast China precipitation event temporal and spatial variation |
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