| 我国现代气候业务现状及未来发展趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋连春,肖风劲,李威.我国现代气候业务现状及未来发展趋势[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(5):513-520. |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋连春 肖风劲 李威 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气候中心, 北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 资助项目：全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划（2012CB955902） |
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| 摘 要： | 从气候监测诊断、气候预测、气候系统模式、气候评价与灾害风险管理、气候变化业务和气候业务平台等角度，系统概述了我国现代气候业务现状。提出了以气候监测和动力学诊断为基础，以提升气候服务、气候风险管理和应对气候变化能力为目标，以发展客观化气候预测技术和定量化气候评估方法为核心的现代气候业务概念。分析了国际气候业务发展趋势及我国气候业务的差距，明确了加强气候系统基本变量监测、提高气候系统模式分辨率和改进物理过程、发展第2代短期气候预测系统、研发气象灾害风险评估方法并建立中国气候服务系统 (CFCS) 等发展任务。
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| 关 键 词： | 现代气候业务 发展趋势 气候服务 客观化 定量化 |
| 收稿时间： | 4/8/2013 12:00:00 AM |
The Current Status and Future Development of Modern Climate Operation in China |
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| Song Lianchun,Xiao Fengjin and Li Wei.The Current Status and Future Development of Modern Climate Operation in China[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2013,24(5):513-520. |
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| Authors: | Song Lianchun Xiao Fengjin and Li Wei |
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| Institution: | National Climate Center, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | The current situation of modern climate operation in China is summarized, based on reviewing different aspects which include climate system monitoring and prediction, the climate system model, climatic assessment and disaster risk management, climate change and climate operation platform. The concept of modern climate operation is proposed, aiming at improvement of climate service, climate risk management and climate change adaptation. Its core is to develop objective prediction skill and quantified assessment method based on climate system monitoring and dynamics diagnosis. The future development of international climate operation and the deficiency of China modern climate operation are also analyzed. The implementation plan of modern climate operation in China is described clearly, including strengthening the monitoring of essential climatic variables, increasing resolution and improving physical processes in the climate system model, developing the second generation of short term climate prediction system, seeking the assessment method of meteorological disaster and building China framework of climate service (CFCS). |
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| Keywords: | modern climate operation developing trend climate service objectification quantification |
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